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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

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  • ufgtor ufgtor Dec 13, 2012 9:50 AM Flag


    George - IMHO you have the stronger arguement and more common sense given the incredible valuation and other facts you laid out. Buyers at this point could not possibly stand on stage and defend the price of the stock at 150 x PE. We've seen this in other companies such as GMCR and the likes when they hit extraordinary valuations only to have suffered dramatic declines. This is too rich for me to buy in here. As for name calling and idiotic threats of being a worst nightmare that is just childish nonsense from immaturity or total desperation. Good trading to all. Do your own research and make your own decisions and take responsibility for those decisions and respect others. We dont move markets on these boards and I for 1 would like to see more posts with substance from both sides and empty garbage posts from anyone. I dont post like I used to on these boards because they became a haven for mostly foolish empty baseless non-sense and a waste of time. But from time to time I chime in to see if anything changed. Apparently with few exceptions like George there is NO change.

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    • georgespelvin Dec 17, 2012 4:39 PM Flag

      Thank you, ufgtor. I felt it was overvalued for almost a year but it rose on the story and it is hard to fight a story. When the story grew old and it seemed like reality was beginning to set in and it had gone from 97 to 92 I shorted. Within several months it became my largest win in percentage and abs dollars. I have lost ground in the recent few weeks but I don't like to micro trade swings. I don't know how. Plus it's too much work. But there is little that is more of a downward pressure than a shattered rosy story and it looks to me like this story will not be shattered until after this quarter is reported. The valuation makes no sense. There is nothing about what this company does that I do not know. Nothing. At $25 this is overpriced. With its adversely scaling margins the more business it does the worse the outlook becomes. And these decreasing margins tell you that they have no meaningful technology. Part if that story is hidden by the clever fact that for the most part they just handle the I initial billing processes and not the downstream issues which means that the margins would be even worse if those costs did not reside on the P&L's of their clients. They have renewed some large contracts at two thirds if their initial term prices.

      With some creative revenue recognition manipulations they can hide this. They ALL do it. If they get caught the SEC and DOJ pretend they are shocked. That they had no idea. It is a shill game and the naive are the patsies.

      Not one member of senior mgt has bought a single share. Ever. They sell. The little guy buys.

      I am looking forward to seeing the net flow of the institutions. I have said that I think they are selling into the story. Anyone can see what they do on Yahoo finance.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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