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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

  • hd4dbeach1 hd4dbeach1 Feb 8, 2013 7:45 PM Flag

    Did the call sound like a motivational seminar?

    No substance

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    • georgespelvin Feb 8, 2013 11:58 PM Flag

      Yes. He is brilliant. He floats above the ramifications of what he says. He has prepared everyone for a problematic next quarter and nobody cares! An analyst states that only 4% of physicians have EMRs which is preposterous and nobody cares. Bush states that 95% of his docs have proved meaningful use which cannot be true and that other vendors do not know neither of which is true and nobody cares. They love the guy.

      He is exciting. All over the lot but incredibly engaging. He tells thrilling stories. His net profits as a percentage of revenues go down ceaselessly and he promises more of the same and people lap it up. It is WEIRD.

      And he talks about things that I promise you none of the enthralled understand.

      He has a good business. It deserves a P/E of 30, max. The P/E is 183.

      I will stay short. The market cap is over $3 billion. It made less than $6 million last quarter. He intimates it will make less next quarter. If he doubles the profit each year it is a bad bet but he doesn't. He made 11% more. On a 30% revenue increase. And he is paying nearly $300 million for a company that could not make a profit and just received $80 million cash infusion. And he thinks this is a great idea because doctors who look up drug interactions on their cell phones will be moved to throw out their billing systems and EMRs so they can do billing and EMR with the same vendor that now owns the cell phone application.

      I think Bush is a magician when it comes to spinning a story and he truly does understand the 30,000 foot ramifications of the technology arcania he spouts that his audience only pretends to but....he is wrong.

      I am reminded of a famous diamond merchant who went to jail for selling diamonds at market prices. The rub was that he purported to be selling them for below market prices.

      This is a decent company with an indecent stock price run by this generation's hypnotist.

      • 1 Reply to georgespelvin
      • All I heard from the call was uncertainty, "if we build it they will come". For such a rich multiple, I don't get how easy the analyst were. I heard much tougher questions around the business modelthrown at blue chips like Intel, Msft. Health consolidation is underway, cost cutting is the name of game, if this company is selling "value" vs price, it is gong to be a tough sell. I don't hate the company either just think the true multiple is much lower.....

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