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  • powermountain2001 powermountain2001 Apr 4, 2013 11:55 AM Flag


    I have been following this stock since Kent Moore's advisory on it several months ago... I got very lucky.. jumped in and out and made several hundred. MAY jump back in later... and under the right circumstances, MAY hold long. BUT... SEVERAL THOUGHTS HERE... Kent Moor seems to call a buy AFTER a stock has run up big, leaving little upside potential... at least in the short run. SO, IF YOU USE HIS SERVICE, BE ADVISED OF THAT TENDENCY... mostly I just listen to his descriptions of what is happening in the oil industry because I think the oil industry is a critical one, AND there IS money to be made there... MUCH MORE IMPORTANTLY, HOWEVER, CONSIDER WHAT I HAVE HEARD ABOUT FRACKING IN THE UNITED STATES... and it almost certainly applies to tight oil and gas all over the world...

    I have heard, from various sources, that fracking into tight oil and gas shales is inherently a money losing proposition. Not only is it very expensive to do, with high up front costs, but rapid depletion, even in sweet spots, makes all but the very best wells money losers. IN SHORT, UNLESS A COMPANY GETS LUCKY AND DRILLS INTO THE VERY BEST SPOTS IN THE VERY BEST SHALES, IT IS LIKELY TO END UP IN BANKRUPTCY. Now that is a VERY importanT consideration for Link Energy and its allegedly massive reserves of shale gas and oil.... It means that unless drillers believe that they can consistently hit whatever sweet spots are in those holdings, they may not drill into them... ever. IN THE UNITED STATES, THE PROBLEM IS LOW NATURAL GAS PRICES... shale that would make money in a high price regime loses money when gas prices are low.. AUSTRALIA CAN LIKELY SELL FOR HIGH PRICES TO ASIA. Meanwhile, reserves of shale oil are probably more valuable than shale gas, so companies drilling for shale oil have some additional cushion of income to fall back on. BUT EVEN SO, EXPERIENCE IN THE UNITED STATES STRONGLY SUGGESTS CAUTION... THESE RESERVES MIGHT BE VERY VALUABLE, BUT PERHAPS NOT FOR YEARS TO COME.

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    • The last few days of sell off is way over done in my opinion. The news yesterday that the company is considering the purchase of more coal from BHP/Mitsubishi has been addressed by Linc management on its website. Bottom line - the noise in the global markets and in the Linc ADR/Stock is overshadowing the fundamentals for the Linc business units....

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • dgalamaga May 21, 2013 5:07 PM Flag

      Thanks for the thoughful post. I have an energy engineer and systems administrator and gave a lot of thought to thr investment in Linc and did not get the rec from Moors. In fact, when the news release developed about the Arckaringa basin in Australia, I nosed around and found the background on Linc. Bond seems to me as guy with a lot of drive and doing things that have caught the imagination of the Aussie public, especially with his coal to gas tours around the country and his promise of Aussie "energy independence." I like the deal he has with India for $2/ton of coal starting this year at 60 million tons per year. I also like the fact that he has producing oil well in the U.S. and expanding there, which put him in the black as of the last fiscal reporting quarter. He aslo has a coal to gas operation actually producing electricity in one of the "...stans" in the former Soviet bloc. This all started on a wing and a prayer and a deal. The Yumiat operation in Alaska was an initial bust due to weather but looks like the oil is leaking out of the permafrost there. I'll bet on that one. As far as fracking is concerned, your talking points, though well made, are a bit of what I have heard from the New York anti fracking crowd. Those comments are "spot on" for wildcatters, but not for the big boys that Barclays will be sorting out thru a bidding process that probably looks like the India deal for each tract. I doubt he will get the $300 million up front like the "gold rush" touters supported, but if that basin is one tenth of what they are saying, there will be another generous csh stream for Bond and Linc. On balance, i thought that the LNCGY units were a pretty good bet and have placed my trust in about two years for this to play out. If you want to trade this, good luck, All JMHO

    • Good points to consider. The current price is still a good buy if not purely for speculation on potential partners coming down the road. Now my point about those partners.....Peter Bond stated interest parties exceeded 70 so far. One must assume the majority are major global energy players to mid-size company's with ample cash to spend......this tells me the experts in the business firmly believe this to be a winner not a loser, and want to develop these assets. My second point........the Cooper Basin a few short hundred miles to the northeast is already developing Permian based geological formations with profitable success. Australia is on fire for new LNG terminals coming online in the near term future.......a strong sales base going forward hence the Arckaringa basin would be producing at a similar time frame all these terminals become ready for transport. Linc Energy is developing a diverse energy profile of resources....if only 1/4th gets developed with success it's a winner 40% upside potential.

    • It sure looks like a Pump and Dump operation since Moor's recommendation.
      Still going down (-2.5%) in Australia at 11:00 am local time on Monday 04-08-13.

1.18010.0000(0.00%)Apr 6 3:53 PMEDT