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Perion Network Ltd. Message Board

  • pivot_finder pivot_finder May 17, 2013 1:22 PM Flag

    Techincals and Fundementals line up and my 2014 PT is $48.72

    I started following PERI and made my first purchase the week of March 23 when the stock reveresed after making new lows and finished at its weekly high. I have since added to my position 3 times with my most recent purchase this week after earnings. For anyone that follows IBD, we have seen a sharp cup with handel and the largest volume week to confirm the breakout. Fundementally the numbers are off the charts from an earnings growth, sales growth, ROE, FCF and a PE of 12 after a 17% move in the stock this week. We know they signed a 2 year deal with Google, confirmed Bing and Ask and are close with a 4th major search player internationally. With the amount of shares traded this week, we can assume institutional investors are buying, which will furthur reduce the tradeable shares ( wouldn't want to be short). With the stock trading very near to its weekly high is only another sign of how strong demand is for the shares. The PE could easily double which implies a PT of $29.52 to start. On 2014 earnings at PT at 24x is equall $48.72.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • belbezre May 17, 2013 11:10 PM Flag

      yeah you are right about the fundamentals but you are missing out on one more factor which is the the external risk factor. Watch what will happen to this stock if a war starts between Israel and any of the surrounding countries and this is due soon since its been 7 years since their last war and we all know how much Israel loves wars. Then tell me whats the PT for Perion. By the way this is all right on top of the risk factors listed by the company itself. I really like this company and I was an investor for a while and I went through it all until I finally got out in the 14's. I wish I was able to stay in but the political factors scared me much specially that its boiling in that region. Good Luck though.

      • 1 Reply to belbezre
      • gappleheart May 18, 2013 4:57 PM Flag

        Oh, it's Israel that loves wars... right...
        Not the Syrians who kill thousands a week of their own citizens
        Not the Hamas in Gaza that fires rockets at Israeli cities
        Not Iran that declares on a daily basis it will annihilate Israel and is racing towards an atomic bomb
        Not Egypt and Jorden and Hizbolah in Lebanon who teach their children from the age of 2 how to kill Jews
        Not Saudi Arabia who funds terrorists to do acts like 9/11
        Not the Moslems who joined up with Hitler in order to kill Jews, who even today routinely kill gays, women and Christians
        Only Israel loves war... right...

    • Yes, that would be a nice PT for a US company, but Israeli companies tend to have lower PEs because of the so-called external risk. This is actually very little risk for this company as it has very little infrastructure (just office space) to be affected by hostilities. However, investors will be investors, and we may have to be more patient than with other stocks. A PE of 8 is probably more normal from an historical perspective for an Israeli stock, although I could see it stretch to 10 so that would translate to a value of about $20 for 1914 based on your numbers. That is still a very good gain from here!

      • 1 Reply to jdsomers
      • Oh, come on now. What's the current PE on the TASE, about 12? Even I have owned stock in an Israeli company that was bought out at a PE of 16 (Shamir Optical, SHMR), and SHMR had manufacturing facilities located n Israel and were growing much slower than PERI.

        I think PERI has such a low PE mostly because they have had a hard time convincing investors that there would be long-term demand for their products, but that seems to be changing.

    • Not the same kind of market these days. It seems the speculative money losers breakout everyday while the sound profitable companies like PERI get no interest except from the shorts that take it down systematically. Dysfunctional really, but that is the reality in many issues today.

      • 1 Reply to guilderpond
      • I have continued to add on the pullback. My outlook does not change here. As the mobile and tablet numbers continue to revised upward, more and more people will consolidate their logins to one place. What I do know is that the stock has broken it's 50 DMA on light volume. Not one day of selling is above average, which is telling me that fast money is getting out. Not one week of downward movement has been in above average volume. IF and when they announce the next Partner ( my guess is either Bidu or Qihoo) it will be a game changer. Buy on the weakness and their will be a moat around the 200 DMA if it get's there.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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