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  • balak_joshi balak_joshi Mar 12, 2011 8:08 PM Flag

    From 15.8 PE to 10.8 PE in one year

    Market price = Fundamentals * appeal for the stock.

    For MSFT, Fundamentals are stellar. Marker appeal is horrible. Market appeal declined faster than earnings improved. 60% decline in market appeal will still result in 30% PE contraction if appeal for the stock goes down by 40%.

    MSFT one year price decline of 15% comes from = 24% eps increase * 32% appeal collapse.
    MSFT today = 1.24 * .68 of 1 year ago or 0.85x of $30. Makes sense?

 
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