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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

  • cfuryurself cfuryurself Jan 11, 2013 7:04 PM Flag

    since it is the weekend lets put this simple math problem back up

    given a list of measurements for a single quantity which strategy provides the most likely best estimate of the true value.

    1 Averaging the measurements
    2 Using the rules of significant digits

    Anybody chime in with which strategy is most likely to give a closer answer to the true measurement.

    C'mon itz simple

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    • beelzebufo_ampinga_10048 beelzebufo_ampinga_10048 Jan 12, 2013 10:45 AM Flag

      Suppose cfunny takes six hot water enemas as follows:

      1. One cup (4 oz) short of 6 quarts of water at 105.6 degrees F, with soapy water
      2. 6 quarts of water at 115.3 degrees F, with soapy water
      3. 6 quarts of water at 114.7 degrees F, with clear water
      4. 6 quarts of water at 108.3 degrees F, with clear water
      5. 8 quarts of water at 117.9 degrees F, with clear water

      Do you think the cfunny will care if the average temperature was 112.7131964809 degrees F or will about about 112.7 degrees F or 113 degrees F be an adequate average?

      Will he think of it as significant that one of the enemas was almost 118 degrees F? Or will he insist that it was only 117.9 degrees F.

      This is an experiment we could really try!

    • beelzebufo_ampinga_10048 beelzebufo_ampinga_10048 Jan 12, 2013 10:18 AM Flag

      Here's another statistic for you. Republicans are going on and on about their Hispanic Stratedgy.

      During election 2012 Mitt Romney lost by about 2 million votes. (If I recall 1.5 million voted for "Other" and Obama got a 50.5% majority, the 0.5% being 500k or 600 k votes.)

      So if there are 9 million adult gays, how many do you think voted for Mitt Romney? I bet Close to NONE. Now suppose Romney got 1/3rd of the gay vote, about 3 million votes. Bingo, Romney wins in 2012!

      All Obama did to get ALL of the gay vote was SAY he supported gay marriage. He didn't actually DO ANYTHING! Nor did he promise to DO ANYTHING. He just talked blither blather.

      We are hearing constant political chatter about the Republican Hispanic Strategy and NO TALK AT ALL about the Republican Gay Strategy!

      How does that affect/effect or impact your significant digits?

    • beelzebufo_ampinga_10048 beelzebufo_ampinga_10048 Jan 12, 2013 10:08 AM Flag

      In reality numbers are often rounded in arbitrary ways. You can't even tell unless you study the numbers.

      A recent study says that about 3.8% of the US population is LGBT, or about 9 million people.

      If one figures that the US population is about 305 million then:

      305 million * 0.038 = 11.59 million gays. Which should properly be rounded up to 12 million.

      You have to dig around to find they applied their percentage to the presumed adult population above age 18. I looked this up and it works out to like 8.8 million adult gays, which they round up to 9 million.

      Do we assume there are no gay children? Or that they don't count? Or maybe that we can "cure" them?

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