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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

  • KevinInCA KevinInCA Jan 9, 1998 8:11 PM Flag


    Yes, it is overvalued. The whole stock market is overvalued.
    People have been pumping in lots of cash and creating a sellers
    market for the last four years. Is the stock a good value
    compared to all other stocks? That's the question.

    There are my key questions about a company:
    That's what you are really buying.)
    Will their revinues and earnings grow?
    (Raising the value.)
    Do they look like winners over the long term?
    (Why would someone buy the stock from you?)
    Is this a relatively safe investment?
    (All stocks go up and down. Will the stock you
    purchase "crash and burn"?)

    If you have just started investing in the stock market,
    well you missed the crash of 1987. In one day, a large
    chunk of your money was gone. If you were thinking short
    term, you lost big when you sold off what remained. If
    you stayed put, most of the money came back in a few years.
    Of course, if you just started buying recently, this is
    starting to look similar to 1987. Just a little slower.

    So if you bail out of the stock market, where do you go???
    Fund managers have millions of dollars to spend and how are
    they going to make up their losses? If any stock looks
    immune to the Asian Flu, it could be a hot item.

    Personally, I'm in no rush to put more money into the
    stock market until things settle down. I'm in no rush
    to bail out until things go up. That's a brokers nightmare!
    They had better move the market one way or the other.


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    • I expect a 500 point drop Monday then a 1500 point drop Tuesday. Haven't given the rest of the week much thought.

      Of course the Fed could print up an extra 10 or 20 billion to give away on Wall Street .. naaaa, don't think so. But it'll take something of that magnitude to change the current momentium.

      There's still a few puts left out there.


    • Thinking over the weekend about what happened on Friday is what happened in '87 and caused black Monday.

      On that Friday the S&P 500 broke below its 200 day moving average. On our Friday, last, the Nasdaq and the Dow broke their 200 day moving averages. This should have given investors something to think about over the weekend.

      If the S$P 500 drops more than 18 points on Monday, it will have breached its 200 day moving average. If this happens early, it might start a panic.

      Things look grim. Friday they were dumping the drug and toiletry stocks with all the rest.

    • Globex futures for the mini S&P are at -3050. Probably momentium haulted at the end of the day Friday. However that would
      represent a 30 point drop in the S&P.. about twice that of Friday. With the December rate of 9billion cash outflows from US Mutual
      markets already in place, the last two days of trading will do nothing but make the situation worse. Reports seem to indicate that
      some portion of the outflows Friday were foreign investers pulling money out of what used to be the great safe haven. Overseas
      and domestic small investers will now have two days to think about what just happened and look at the Globex numbers. If Monday
      is a continuation of Friday then Tuesday will be even worse.

      Isn't MSFT due in court on Tuesday?


    • I don't believe much of anything is going to pop up soon.

    • I see that you don't believe that MSFT is going to pop back up soon.



    • This was worth reading. Still part of the stock market
      is logical and so much is emotional.

      From the Compaq Message board...
      Worth reading.

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