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CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Message Board

  • i_take_the_fifth i_take_the_fifth Jul 21, 2008 8:22 PM Flag

    I don't want to rain on anyone's parade

    but we haven't seen the bottom in financials. At least in banks. Maybe IGR. I think the U.S. is heading for a depression. And I hope I'm wrong.

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    • I realize you have a July posting, but I think you are right as rain. A couple of months ago a London paper had 'Americas Depression" on the front page. How long since our recession started before they would quit guessing because their 'numbers' wouldn't support it. By the time depression gets talked about, we will have been in it for a while. They talk about deleveraging, what they really mean is the pyramid -ponzi scheme coming undone, the greater fool theory.
      I'm beginning to think, he who holds gold will be the winner in the long term, even Greenspan said all this wouldn't have happened if we where still on the gold standard.

    • Thanks! Its people like you who keep scaring everyone that is causing people like me to get some great deals. Depression, LOL! Keep it up, rookie.


      • 1 Reply to irajdindarr
      • Truly spoken. There is no safe haven in the stock market, only risk and reward. IGR is a gift right now, IMHO. It is made up of REITS and if you look at REIT earnings across the board, they are doing okay, not great, but okay enough for the payout to continue until things get better. I would rather have my money in IGR at 11% than in the dollar at 4 because the dollar is going to trend down for a long time. All IMHO.

    • So what do you recommend for a safe dividend? I dont trust reits or financials. And with energy tanking I dont trust the canroys either. Whats left?

    • It's a tough call. Something to watch out for, as far as the market is concerned, is:

      CAPITULATION - a time when the general sentiment is so negative good and back stocks are dumped indiscriminately. It's a time when stocks pass (at fire-sale prices!) from weak hands to strong hands.

      I don't think we've seen it yet, though. As for IGR, watch for a second low, higher than the first and the volume at that point. A volume picture matching the chart movement of the stock is a positively signal the bottom has been seen and there's "bottom-fishing" with accumulation.

      Fundamentally, insider buying is always a positive signal. I'll see if I can find info on this.

      I bought some more. A bit against my philosophy of not averaging DOWN. But what the heck, I like this one.

      • 1 Reply to albacete6
      • In a market like this is the time to buy,I have been buying like crazy. I haven't bought any of this,but only because I have been buying others that look like even better deals than this one. If you liked it at a few dollars higher and you don't know anything bad happening to it,you should love it at this price. The market is down,hopefully it will go back up at some point. Anyway,collect a good dividend while waiting.

8.44+0.04(+0.48%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT