Now that we can see the earnings, I do wonder if we were seeing some awareness by someone that the results would not be entirely wonderful. Of course, even I, a relative outsider, guessed that would be the net result, so it could just as well be a cumulation of all the wisdom about Raven's value out there exerting a negative pressure on the price. In fact, I would place that second liklihood as most significant. Raven has always been pretty careful about letting earnings information slip out. One big change though is that Moquist and Iacarella and Ohme were pretty tight knit. Even if one division knew they were doing well, I suspect they really had little feel for the other divisions. Now there are a few more people with insights to each division's performance. And, no doubt, a few loose cannons.
It almost looks like a bunch of owners don't pay any attention to Raven, suddenly become aware that the price is down, and without doing any research begin selling. Then, a day later when they figure out that the stock split, they buy back even more furiously.
I have a hard time believing RAVN investors are that silly, but I have several times found that they don't follow the stock very closely--probably because it is a small holding in their portfolio. As Steve pointed out yesterday, it does present some wonderful opportunities for alert investors.
That's just how Raven trades sometimes. It seems to go from overbought to oversold, but that can provide a chance to add or sell shares around a base position if you are lucky. Also, I think part of the recent run up was due to the split announcement. Now that it has come and gone and the shares didn't pop up after the split, a few people who were hoping for a further move up have thrown in the towel. I think it is getting closer to a value point, but what do I know.
That's what I was thinking. It seemed like it dropped like a rock after the news release regarding their technology conference. I was curious if something was said about slowing growth, etc. during the conference that I wasn't aware of. RAVN does seem to have an inverse beta sometimes though...up on down days and vice versa.