Today's CO2 Report - destructive hurricane season is forecast.
After three consecutive years with a remarkable 19 named storms in the Atlantic, expect another Atlantic hurricane season with similar levels of activity in 2013, says the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 10. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 165. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103.
Not related, its part of natural weather patterns thats been going on forever:
Three ingredients combined to generate more and stronger hurricanes in 2005, said Gerry Bell, lead meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. Warm ocean water helps fuel storms, and Atlantic water temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees above average this year, he said. There was an absence of winds high in the atmosphere that can tear hurricanes apart. And winds blowing east from Africa steered developing storms toward warmer waters where they incubated into tropical storms and hurricanes.
That combination of factors has occurred periodically through history, Bell said. Meteorologists refer to such an active hurricane cycle as the "multi-decadal signal." It can last for 30 years. The current period began in 1995. A record 26 tropical storms formed this season, which began June 1 and ends today.
"It's not related" to global warming, Bell said. The same conditions occurred in the 1950s and 1960s, the last period of above-normal hurricane activity. Many records set in 2005, including most hurricanes in a season — 13 — surpassed marks set then. (Related story: '06 forecast: More stormy weather)
The opposite conditions occurred between 1970 and 1994 and coincided with below-average hurricane seasons. "The climate patterns that we're seeing now didn't exist in the 1970s, '80s and most of the 1990s," Bell said.
William Gray, head of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, also says on his website that there's no evidence that global warming has caused more hurricanes.