Unlike analysists comments, RTK says prices will be similar to last years. I trust these guys more than some half baked analysists.
"The prices we're seeing today for the fall of 2012 are in a range comparable to this average delivered price of products during the fourth quarter of last year at $684 for ammonium and $307 for UAN. But our natural gas prices have dropped from last year's average of $4.81 per MMBtu. So we're setting up for strong margins this fall.
As of March 31, we've locked in or delivered 38% or 55,000 tons of the ammonia deliveries forecasted for 2012 at an average price of $693 and 34% or 99,000 tons of UAN deliveries forecasted for 2012 at an average price of $361. Keep in mind that this is for the 12 months ending December 31, 2012."
That's why they predicted $2.86 dist for the full year.
It really pays to listen to that CC. One gets a completely different outlook compared to that analyst report from Damon Rose. Some highlights:
-Expect fert. prices to remain similar for 2012 -They've sold out their production for the last 45 years. -As long as corn prices stay above $5/ bushel sales will be robust. -Their NG costs dropped from $4.60 to $2.60. (68% hedged for 2012). (Thats a 50% drop in their NG production cost which immediately flows to their bottom line) -Earlier planting this year will not affect sales
It seems to me that even if fert prices soften a bit, it will not affect their bottom line since their NG cost of production will drop significantly.