RNF will benefit from an escalating fight in Ukraine. A lot of fertilizer and Ag products come out of this region and if Russia blocks it or Allies block it (both likely) the price of fertilizer will spike even more as other buyers scramble to buy. Stockpiles have been worked down from last year so setting up for nice move here.
one would think...but that is not what we are seeing. Lots of cheap fertilizer still coming out of that region as you say. Would our president want higher food costs? No. Not now. Not in a year of elections coming up for all of congress and a third of the senate in 6 months. Much higher grain costs will help. Corn on the rise.
Maybe Putin will stop all exports to US to punish us.....that would help. Of course, making money and paying a high dividend again would help.....but that seems to be off the table for this company.