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Simulations Plus, Inc. Message Board

  • vilblirik vilblirik Nov 13, 2008 9:51 AM Flag

    How long will growth last

    The CEO has guided 30-40% growth in equity and income for the foreseeable future.

    How many quarters/years do you expect SLP will gro faster than let's say 25%?

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    • Considering that you would probably be in the 99.999 percentile and I would grade on a curve I guess you'd get an A++!

    • Ace,

      If I could pick winning stocks 86 times out of 100 and I were your investment advisor, what grade would you give me?

      -JB

    • A reasonable guide for sales and earnings estimates is the Analyst Estimates section on Yahoo Finance at this link:
      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=SLP

      These estimates are made by Howard Halperin at Taglich Brothers. Taglich Brothers has a comprehensive report on SLP and provides an update after each earnings report. The Taglich information can be found here:
      http://www.taglichbrothers.com/equityuniverse/companies/simplus/simplus.asp

      Howard also provides a good summary of past accomplishments and planned activities for the future. It's a good report to get an overall understanding of what the current and planned activity is at SLP.

      Of course an analyst estimate is exactly that... An estimate. You can see that Taglich is estimating that SLP will earn about .03 per share for their Q 4 and .12 for the year and .15 per share for next year with a sales increase of around 13%.

      SLP is a very small company so if a sale is recorded in this Q or the next Q can significantly effect the financial results so It's best to look at reports over a longer time period to get a better feel for how the business is progressing.

      As far as how long SLP can continue to grow... Walt has expressed confidence that there is plenty of business available for future sales growth. Also, Walt said that there is almost always someone he is talking to about a possible acquisition. A while back he said that he is always talking to 2 or 3 possible acquisition candidates. It remains to seen if the deterioration in the economic environment has made an acquisition either more or less likely. The current economic environment can put additional pressures on companies that are considering to sell their operation to someone else. Given the excellent financial condition of SLP this might provide them with an opportunity. What we don't know yet is if the overall economic weakness will result in reduced sales for SLP making it more difficult for SLP to make an acquisition. Certainly the low stock price would make it more expensive if any SLP stock were part of a deal. We just don't have the information as to what the underlying trends are right now... That's why it's so important to invest in management that you have confidence in that will make the right decisions given the circumstances.

      Dick Milde

    • When and where was that guidance provided?

 
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