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V.F. Corporation Message Board

  • steve.kandalam steve.kandalam Feb 10, 2012 7:06 PM Flag

    Research on VF Earnings Guidance

    I am quoting from the cfo's remarks on the last cc!
    For the full year, we now expect reported earnings per share of approximately $7.90. Again, to be clear on what is included
    here, the Timberland accretion is now expected to be $0.30 per share, better than the $0.25 per share in our original guidance.
    So on an organic basis, excluding Timberland, we are now looking at full-year earnings of $7.60 per share, up from our prior
    guidance of $7.50 per share. That represents organic earnings per share growth of 18% from the $6.46 per share reported in
    2010 excluding impairment.
    The $0.30 per share in accretion now includes $0.25 of acquisition-related expenses, as I mentioned previously. Excluding these
    non-recurring expenses, the earnings accretion from Timberland would be $0.55 per share compared to our prior guidance of
    $0.45 per share. So our EPS, including Timberland but excluding the acquisition-related expenses, would be $8.15 or an increase
    of 26% over last year's $6.46 per share

    so without the acquisiton related expenses- they are guiding it to $8.15 (with the expense it wil be $7,90)- typically you treat this as one time expense and use the higher EPS guidance of $8.19
    if the beat by 10 cents( cotton prices fell down to $1 per lb from $ 2+ per pound in the 3rd quarter_ that is a huge drop)

    the only worry is that they are assuming a Euro rate of $1.30- currently at $1.32- not sure what it was on dec 31st!)- that may be a hit

    so I am expecting a 10 cent beat that gets the 2011 EPS to 8.29 cents- with 18 PE- a fair price would be $ 150- but if you give a higher PE multiple of 20- that would be $165
    so I expecta price between 150 and 165 based on Trailing earnings alone- no future earnings! So to average out- a fair price is $160
    Load up on the greeek debt news- we are in for a smooth take off
    VF has consistently beaten their guidance over the past 4 quarters!

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