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Vringo, Inc. Message Board

  • jpatrick.michael jpatrick.michael Nov 10, 2012 11:04 AM Flag

    Vrng not "valued" at all. Nothing "priced in"

    One has to laugh when hearing a claim that the market has "priced in" certain things re Vrng's value. --- Or that Vrng is, as a result of this or that Vring is "valued at" a certain low price. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    As numerous people have pointed out, the huge majority of Vrng's stock is being SHORTED. Some articles claim 77% or more of the float is shorted. No "valuation" is taking place at all. The hedgefunds and day traders and momentum wonks are using Vrng, with its extremely low stock price and extremely low float, as a gimmick to make big bucks. It's being toyed with. It's a game for them. It's a losing proposition for retail "investors" who try to jump in and out because of some of the absurd daily fluctuations.

    Even under the most conservative valuations the stock is worth more than it's being traded at, and to say that the stock jumps hugely up or down hugely within a few minutes or hours has nothing at all to do with a calculated changing "valuation". People are simply trading this stock. It's presently a stand-in as a gambling platform. It's so obvious when the stock is either walked down or slammed down in order to take out stop losses, and then bounced back up again. It ain't rocket science, guys and gals. We can do all the involved calcualtions re stock valuation we want (and I do appreciate them), but don't think that the present stock price is in any related to the real world.

    Plan of action? I say, if you have money to spare, when the traders pound the stock down take advantage of it, but DON"T sell back at these low prices. Hang on. Let this lawsuit work its way through. Make the shorters later PAY for your shares. Don't try to out-trade the traders (unless that's your business). Time is on our side IF we use it.

    Vrng has yet to be "valued" by the market. Nothing is "priced in or out" by the market. This is pure and simple an inexpensive low-float stock that's being gamed right now.

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    • Gosh you guys are dumb...idiots!!! you really think Vringo is worth $3...idiot #$%$.....

    • You said it all there. I couldn't have put it better myself. Buy in on large dips and hold. My plan too.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • i_gotta_have_more_cowbell i_gotta_have_more_cowbell Nov 11, 2012 9:08 PM Flag

      Agreed. If the market is always right, as some proclaim, then it stands to reason the market was right to value VRNG in the $3-$4 range for the last seven months. But simple logic says we are not at the same place now that we were then. We have a positive verdict, and a pending award (of varying size).

      This is not at all the unknown situation it was, the before / after comparison is not apples to apples. So, was that market right then, or is it right now? Either it was correct then, and missing the mark now, or it was wrong then, and thus proved unreliable because it was wrong. Six does not equal three no matter how you slice it. My limited education stoped with calculus, so I asked one of the wiz kids in the family with a doctorate in physics, and he confirmed that generally six does not equal three, but there were exceptions, and the conversation went to creating black holes, nano tubes, and a bunch of stuff that made even less sense to me than VRNG trading at $3.40.

      If you wait to take your cues from the market and get confirmation that this in fact worth more by evidence of a higher pps, then you missed the boat. This is the kind of investment that doesn't present itself everyday. I'm not waiting for others to reaffirm what I already have conviction about. I want to be in now, not after everyone else figures it out too. By the time VRNG is a household name, and trading at p/e of 21, it will be too late to pick up the gains we are looking at now.

    • One has to laugh at you warped logic and post. It is very priced in based on the current cash the company has and going forward 12 to 24 months. As already posted by someone else, it is at a 3x cash price now based on 12 months cash position from now, so if they were to liquidate after 12 months, you only get 33 cents on the dollar, totally priced in now.

    • every time the price dips i buy. 50 shares here, 100 shares there. i am slowly building up my vrng empire. eventually the mm's and "peteharrison cops lock typing idiots" will tire and find somewhere else to go play. you see, the advantage grown folks have over children is wisdom and patience.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I think true in general, but the critical distinction is transition from speculation base vs. substance base. The speculation-base fueled the volatility- the dramatic range per expectations of a binary decision. With verdict, the binary now a "yes"... VRNG moved to a substance base (real value)... the only question is "how much."

      We can say with confidence that $30M is absolute minimal base (valuation), with great likelihood of 3.5% royalty... which gives current price substantial support (again, vs. speculative). The market didn't just "find" (speculation-based volatility) this settle in the low $3's prior to any conversation of math error - but it now substantially corresponds to value. Since Wednesday, while new-- it's been tested and found solid. I could be wrong-- but studying this for many months (making perhaps 6x from my initial investment), I suspect the MM/nano "play" is substantially diminished.

      We're in a new era for VRNG. What's more-- it's on the low because of fatigue with the volatility and being burned by "crying wolf." I got out (90%) again on "Black Wednesday" - but immediately got back in low $3's once this math thing came to light. Numerous possibilities with ownership of the primary profit-driving mechanism that's made GOOG a giant, coveted by all the rest... strong, reasonable basis to expect upward from here in final judge determination (case law stands too much to suffer if he does not make the correction... the judge exists to "judge")... numerous likelihoods lingering in the silent shadows including potential buy-out, if not competitive bidding... all pointing WAY UP from current /solid (bad math) base --- PPS OUGHT to be in $6-7... with ++ per any market valuation.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • right on! you are correct!

    • Nicely put, and frightening as it may sound for most YMB comments, LOGICAL!!!

    • ARNA was no different up to its binary event, topped out at 13.50 after halt was lifted and look where it's at now. The market prices in all the time. You're just another one that lets the market play you. I still wish you luck and sometime (eventually) we'll see whose theories are right and whose are wrong. Lately, it seems there's more fun in that than the actual financial side of it.

 
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