I analyzed previous sales data and found an interesting pattern. Q1 sales are normally 70% of the prior Q4. Adjusting for the recovery by adding an additional 2%, my forecast is for Q1 sales to be 72% of 2013 Q4, or $2723 million. That compares pretty well with the average of analysts estimates of $2710. This, of course, doesn't take into account for weather, holiday schedules, or the prevailing economic conditions.
Q2 through Q4 can be estimated in the same manner, giving me a total for the year of $12,711, which is 7% above FY2013, and within guidance. At an average 34% gross margin, which I consider to be quite reasonable, the total margin dollars for the year will be $4322.
It was interesting to look at the effect of RJ on sales. He took over as CEO on 6/14/2011, and sales began to fall almost immediately.
yahutag • May 4, 2014 9:45 AM.........I analyzed previous sales data(DD) and found an interesting pattern. .Q1 sales are normally 70% of the prior Q4.
yahutag • Mar 18, 2012 1:42 PM..........DD is overrated. I find that throwing a print of the previous quarter results across the room, and counting the number of pages that land face up, is quite successful and takes less time.
Now that's what I call a prediction. Gobbly #$%$, gobbly #$%$, gobbly #$%$, projects 2.75 billion in sales with a 34% margin; UNLESS that figure is affected by the Weather, any Holidays, or the Economy, or any lingering effect from RJ.
I'm sending that one to Harvard School of Business for evaluation as a new investment indicator.