I think a summer selldown is at hand, a lowering tide drops all boats. Protect your gains but you are now owning at a summer time top. I'm long volatility, long SRTY, long QID soon to be long metals and mining. Short HOG and APPLE. Glta. I want to bet against the market at this point. ~ Inflation and higher rates in 1-6 months.
Mike, I really think you're jumping the gun. What you predict will eventually come to pass, but not as soon as you're predicting.
There are no macro events which could trigger such a pullback. In fact, it appears that the economy is finally gaining some traction, which is much more likely to push all stocks farther up. The Fed has created a whopping amount of excess reserves, which will be used to support lending under terms which I expect will be increasingly easy. This will cause the fall that you predict, but at least two years from now. We are now in 1998 relative to the 2000 bubble.
During the next two years, JCP will benefit from both the increased consumer sales enabled by economic growth, and greater optimism in the stock market. If the recovery in the JCP business would support a price of $20, the optimism in the markets will push that up to $30.
However, when the fall eventually comes, it will be quite vicious.
You could be right, or wrong ... no one knows. I do believe that this market will take off in October which suggests to me we need a correction prior but I guess my point is, with the markets up so much since 2009, does a person want to take losses trying to get the last 10%? ... S&P 2250 will trip a correction imho, further, the FED is getting antsy with their cheap dollar proposition. Rates SEEM to have bottomed which will drive bond yields up. This will precipitate safer in stocks as people move away. Inflation strokes bonds and kills stocks, therefore, I reason that while good things can and will happen we face a headwind of inflation, interest rates, slowing China and a "tippy" market that we all should NEED to see before going longer. ~ GLTA as always.