it is not going to beyond 2.8-3.0, and soon will rebound
1) they do have a very good 2013 q1, once a hospital adapt its system, they will keep using their product, unless something goes horribly wrong. So the existing costumer will five NSPH a constant cash flow
2) eventual, all hospital will transform to molecular biology diagnosis, but the question is not all of them have them have the money to change. although in long run, it is of course same money, but usually cost a fortune. that is why they are so reluctant to change, especially under current economy. I cant not find out how much the machine cost from NSPH, but for sure, their Cartage is definitely one of the cheapest (judge by manufacturing cost). Therefore this is a room for it to growth.
3) it is unique in this industry, they are the only one use nano particle (except GNMK use it for a different application), their sensitivity is 1000 time better than traditional DNA dyes, and much cheaper.
the recent fail is likely due to 3 reason:
1) two new approvals from FDA, mean intensify competition, but it does not mean NSPH will not win, as I discuss above, NSPH is unique, it has its market. However, this will definatlely bring down the margin.and traders never look beyond today, bad news is bad news, so traders will use the information to short the share
2) most people will judge NSPH base on GNMK, because they use almost the same technique. recently, GNMK suffer a huge dip due to the lost of their biggest client. 33% fall in GNMK share will also make people think of the future of NSPH, and therefore start sell ing NSPH until it reach similar percentage fall.
3) NSPH only have enough money for 1 year, they need fresh capital, and it is need to be soon. However, due to current market condition, low share price mean low valuation, so extra risk for NSPH. therefore, added the third reason for today's drop.
Overall, I still believe NSPH still have room to survive.
I think the recent fall has more to do with quarter-end "window dressing" by mutual and hedge funds - looking to lock in some profits from their recent winners. I would guess we will see the share price rebound a little going into Q3 and then assuming the Q2 earnings release is solid and points toward continued good growth prospects, we'll get back toward $4. I hope with your Strong Buy rating you believe NSPH will do more than "survive" - I'm looking for thrive!
just to offer 2 cents worth here...
GNMK is different in that it has a product that identifies viruses not bacteria and viruses like NSPH technology. I have also personally seen demonstration in hospital labs on this technology and it is very impressive. I can easily see this taking over for present day blood culture and routine bacteria identification procedures due to the very labor intensive process that Clinical Laboratory Scientists have to go through for identification. With the faster TAT 9turnaround time and
Molecular is the future and I believe this company has a leg up on the competition at this point. I like their product brochures and it is a cost effective test with the test volumes that medium to large Hospital Micro and reference labs would see on a daily basis. Smaller labs I would say no....for now.
I am like everyone else, been investing for many years with hits and misses, but this area happens to be in my expertise with a Microbiology degree and 30 years plus as a Clinical Laboratory Scientist with also 15 years in Biotechnology Industry in the same field.(not in this company....lol)
This company has been aggressive hitting California hospital labs and I think it is a company to watch.
I only have a few thousand shares but...I think it is worth the risk and I will buy more on dips....
sooo....just to help give a view to people who don't have the technical expertise..
But I have to say, NSPH's machine design does have a problem for large lab or hospital.
it is a lot more complex than its competitors, and that is why I hope its price could be low enough to attach small to medium hospital.
I really hope the new sale management team would be able to reach the potential costumer soon enough. Once they have enough cash flow, then they can focus on improving the machine.
There is definately a market place for NSPH, but the whole problem was how to reach the costumer as quick as possible.
It is good to hear that they had switched they focus on sale not research.
Let's hope the Europe and asia sale would be able to catch up soon too.
If they can keep their target 15M, they surely worth more than $177 M
Thank you for your thoughts and I'm sure you're a lot more knowledgeable about the hospital testing field than than most of us investors. You seem to suggest that NSPH will have success in larger hospitals and smaller labs -- but maybe not so much success in smaller hospitals and larger labs? If that is the case, NSPH talks about a US market of 4,000 sites. I suspect that you would see the market somewhat smaller -- maybe 500 to 1,000?
Appreciate you insight, and all the very best,