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Empresas ICA, S.A.B. de C.V. Message Board

  • redheadinvestor Oct 21, 2013 3:49 PM Flag

    We seem to be struggling a bit

    Any news or reason anyone knows of? Is it this hurricane Raymond? Fiscal reform in Mexico seems on track rather than off track.

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    • Disregarding the oil industry, Mexican reform is not good for investors, quite the opposite. Capital gains are getting taxed now. Also, higher taxes on each bracket for people. Mexico just lost huge ($5bill USD) investment from european automaker because the proposed reform. Automaker is know investing on assembly plant in Brazil, not Mexico.

      Last quarter numbers showed Mexico on recession.

      On the other hand, hurricane, and/or any other natural disaster could mean potential business/re-construction for ICA.

      IMO this is all is driving an overall bad sentiment about Mexican economy and investors pulling out.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 3 Replies to invkz
      • redheadinvestor Nov 3, 2013 2:43 PM Flag

        I've been thinking about this and researching this for a week and I partly disagree.

        Mexico's tax take (19% of GDP) is the lowest in OECD. Turkey, a country at a comparable stage of development, is at 26%. Mexico collects taxes notoriously poorly from an execution standpoint, and over-relies on the state-owned oil sector for revenue. Mexico also has a Hispano-form wealth distribution gradient (informally, "three people own everything, and everyone else is a peon").

        So I'm as anti-tax as the next investor, but at the same time, I understand Mexico's interest in tax reform. Shifting away from a tax base inconsistently applied and over-reliant on petro-nationalism might be investment positive, not negative.

        Anyway, Mexico has completed the first stage of reform and will soon move toward opening the oil sector to DFI. That DFI will flow in - it's certain, there will be no Mercedes-Benz denials going on in that sector. Following that second step, it will be time to address public works spending without net-borrowing the necessary sums, and that is where ICA benefits.

      • Also the $$ exchange rate took a big hit. That maybe the biggest problem.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • redheadinvestor Oct 25, 2013 8:12 PM Flag

        Which car maker?

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