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  • imadeadcat imadeadcat Nov 13, 2002 4:54 PM Flag

    OT ...Irrational Exuberance

    I think Sir John Templeton still expects the Dow will go to 35,000. He said as much when he was on Rukeyser's show last month..but not any time soon...maybe in 50 years...his current position is that US Equities are overvalued. Some energy companies are undervalued but most companies are way overvalued.

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    • Dead Cat,

      Under those conditions, I can make predictions and be right too!

      If Templeton now thinks the DOW will hit 35,000 in 50 years, I'm not at all impressed. That would represent less than a 4% annual increase from its current 8400 level! (In fact, at 4% the DOW will be over 67,000 in 2056!!) That's much less than its historical annual increase. And it's MUCH MUCH less than when Templeton was making the prediction, as the DOW was at 10,000 at the time.

      No, I'm afraid Sir John didn't have 50 years from now in mind when he made that prediction. He meant 20 years or less from now (and that might still happen!).

      Don't make me research this! <G>