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Vintage Petroleum, Inc. (VPI) Message Board

  • imadeadcat imadeadcat Sep 22, 2003 4:33 PM Flag

    APC rumor

    Seems like Shell might be interested in Anadarko at something like $8 a barrel of proven reserves...hmm...VPI with 490 million barrels of reserves at $8 bucks hmm...too high.... maybe $4.5 per boe of proven cause of Argentina location.... and Bolivia not worth crap...hmmm let's see 490 x $4.50 = $1.85 billion...take out debt of $700 million = $1.15 billion for shareholders..divided by 60 odd million shares...$18 or 19 a for me...hello Shell???

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    • Deadcat:

      Interesting evaluation about the value of VPI.

      Of that 490 million BOE, I would value the oil in Argentina much, much higher than $4.50.

      They also have a lot of potential there too.

      The big question is what is the rest of VPI worth???? Bolivia and the rest of the SA are crap for sure.

      What about Canada? With the write-offs, how much more is needed? Yemen might be worth a few bucks too...

      Add in the other bits and pieces and you probably get a very good price - maybe even over $20 a share - almost twice the current market price.

      Unfortunately the dickheads that run the company have shown so far that they can not unlock the value for outside shareholders through either earnings or asset revaluation (selling the company).

      If and when they decide to do so, the price of the shares will give those holding them a nice big fat capital gain from current levels.

      The BIG question is IF it will ever happen.....

      Looking forward to earnings and maybe buying in again. Am very happy with my Australian shares (OSH.AX, NVS.AX, and ROC.AX) Also added a few BPT.AX.

      • 1 Reply to laketrack
      • Don't forget the political instability in Argentina and the 20% duty on oil exports....duty not that big a deal when prices are $30+ a barrel but lots of experts were predicting $20 oil for 2004 only a few months ago. I think valuing the Argentina reserves at $4.50 is higher than recent transactions would support...$3.00- $3.50 more like it...see page 4 of 2002 annual report 10k which notes South American acquisitions in 2000 and 2001 at those prices.