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Otelco, Inc. Message Board

  • burnaka May 23, 2013 1:45 PM Flag

    Stopping by to say good luck on OTT

    I have no position, and based on a per line valuation, feel I should stay out of Ott. But hope Walk and the crew make a ton here. Walk, have you looked at, studied the VZ ftr deal, and the PER line cost FTR paid? Most line COs, have a quickly eroding asset as the access lines erode, so does revenue. I believe but have not looked in a year or so that FTR paid about 3,500 per line, but within 2 years lost about 25% of those assets as people went cell. FTR is rural but the majors are putting in towers crushing the rural telcos.

    I am sure you did all your DD, good luck, wish I saw a reason to take a position, but have been burned on other rural telcos in the past. On a perline basis ott makes me hesitate.

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    • stopping by to lol at you ott up 53.93%

    • Hope you're doing well Burn!

      I'm aware of the competitive landscape. As you know from the DF situation a few years back, I'm an extreme value guy. I felt OTT's debt was mispriced back in November (it had more risk then as opposed to now IMO) and feel it still is. When I brought this to your attention it was at around $1.30/unit. Contrary to some here who bought OTT in the teens for income, I think management has done a stellar job navigating through a pair of unfortunate events last year. When OTT emerges from BK any day now, it will have to perform. But regardless of the competitive landscape, it will be easier to do so with its greatly reduced debt and much improved capital structure.

      Good Luck!

      • 2 Replies to walk57
      • walk, good call. have a great week-end

      • burnaka May 23, 2013 3:19 PM Flag

        How R U valuing this company with only 100k land lines, I remember when U bought, I still have those buys in a portfolio, though you might not own any of them at this point, I know you did well here. I found this too risky but then I own OPK which is my one spec, more or less. I am in in the 3.75 range so will hold for a few more years. Have been buying BAC on weakness, should have loaded WAY WAY lower but waited for most litigation to be done. Where u think ott ends up after bk, is it too late to buy here, at 25 m market cap and under 100k lines seems expensive to me. Then again alsk has less lines higher cap, so, but then alsk is safer from competition.