It is far more significant than technical indicators or fundamentals. if one could accurately measure the stupid factor, it would be possible to predict short term stock movement. i kind of suspected ADVS would gap back today, much of the trading population believing the stock is now trading ex dividend.
Your math is seriously flawed. Buying ADVS at about $32 on June 13, when the $9 div was announced, and holding til today would net you $6 per share ex-div. Your strategy - buying ex-div on July 10 - would have paid only about $3 so far.
"i kind of suspected ADVS would gap back today, much of the trading population believing the stock is now trading ex dividend"
Why would you suspect "much of the trading population" to believe the stock to be trading ex-dividend on the day after the record date when, if this had been a normal dividend, it would've traded ex two days before the record date, not one day after?