Herceptin sales$ 9 Bil past 12 months, Kadcyla replaces it for Roche
Label approved yesterday allows first line single agent treatment. It works better than Herceptin and Taxane and does not cause hair loss or nausea. Toxicity profile if you actually read the studies is benign. And this extends Roche exclusivity to 2012. I believe Kadcyla sales will displace Herceptin completely within 2 years. For ImmunoGen that's 3% of 700mil plus 5% OF 830Mil on an annual basis continuing for 10 years. This drug is going to generate more buzz among women's health advocates than anything in the past several years. When analysts became to figure this out- and they should pretty quick with Junius presenting Monday and Tuesday the stock ascends. I am a retired analyst, a very successful one. I would put a Conviction Buy on IMGN with a $40 12 mo target. Have a blessed weekend everybody.
The label does not include first line single agent treatment from what I have read. The label is broader than what was tested in that clinical trial. Anyone peviously treated with Herceptin can take TDM1, which is actually quite significant as that probably more than doubles the patient population than we thought would be treatable via this latest trial. This actually puts the discretion to use TDM1 into the hands of the physicians in my opinion. Oncodoc, it would be good to hear your perspective on that. Seems the FDA is trying to make up for their refusal to file error in 2010, and rightfully so. The upcoming trials for stage 2 and front line use of TDM1 may become just academic exercises before we ever see the complete data. This is just the start of how technology has matured to fight one of life's most frustrating diseases, cancer.
Johngunn, I suggest you go back and review the Roche IMGN rev sharing deal rather than type incorrect info. I believe it's 3% 0f the first 700MM then 5% each year for 12 years after approval in each market, but some markets have a slightly different deal.