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RPC Inc. Message Board

  • jngannex jngannex Mar 14, 2012 4:06 PM Flag

    oil service sector taking a beating

    Clearly the street is expecting dismal results this quarter and only the companies can prove them wrong. BHI, HAL, SLB are all down so it's not RES's performance problem.

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    • "At the end of the day if you really want to make money on the stock market you've got to be willing to bet on a stock that seems out of favor with the market. "

      Two comments.

      First, investing statistics disprove this statement, with a very high probability. Stocks that outperform tend to continue to outperform, and the opposite is also true.

      As to RES, I had made a bubdle on BAS, sold well over 30, bought back heavy at 19, thot I was in for another ride, and it's been dead money for a long time.

      BAS has a lot of similarities to RES. Bot oil svcs, both have good EPS and rev, both seem very cheap, and neither moving an inch.

    • Yes, Indeed. what i see distressful and contradictory is that in the last 6 months :oil has gone up 20% and gas has gone down 60%. That trend i think will be short lived.


    • My thinking is that the selloff is overdone--the market tends to over-correct on both the upside and downside--and that RPC has been driven down to ridiculously low levels for no especially good reason.

      Whatever happens it almost certainly isn't going out of business, and it could rocket up 30% or more even moderately good news.

      At the end of the day if you really want to make money on the stock market you've got to be willing to bet on a stock that seems out of favor with the market.

    • Insider-shorts were indeed right during the first 5 months on record as shown by net trades favor of dispposal (in fact all of them)side at prices much higher than 15p/s.

      Nevertheless their last call in march (adquisitions) came catastrofically wrong and too early as prices keept sliding under 15 p/s .

      Hope i made my point clearer.Sorry the clumsy spelling...its jettisome time


    • Inside-shorts were indeed right with 5 months of dispposals of RES shares at prices much higher than 15 p/s.Nevertheless their last call in march catastrofically wrong as historical prices show.IMAO.


    • I gave a third look at the res stadistics and i could see: 1- short shares increased from last month though not in a worrisome amounth.2-Insiders were dispossing(selling) stocks prior to march ,lasts trades were only purchases and i am talking at a price of 15,+ per stock,after that price went were it is now.So in a sense i believe insiders were overrun by a deppresed market.
      But their judgement somehow make them believe the stock was oversold at 15,+.
      if that is so,then this has become a very interesting stock.

      Any additional comment welcome.Thks.


    • I appreciate your response.

      First i aggree with you that this could be a good value stock.

      As you clearly state your two main worries.% insider ownership and high short ratio.
      I can only add that some very witty big name investors W.Buffet-P.Lynch
      have state that high insider ownership is desirable,nevertheless i dont know what is the ideal %.I tried a small chinese stock with very high insider ownership and money disappeared.
      On the contrary i tried MT an indian megacomp based in Luxemburg ,high insider ownership and i was rewarded.So you are right ,the question is "who"do u put your money with.

      As for the high short ratio,i have the impression that the whole sector (small players) might have been affected due their exposure to nat-gas(not quite sure).
      Now what i see interesting is that certainly i see your point ,hight short ratio together with high ownership and i would add that the short ratio increased from last month...mmmm what do insiders know ??big question.but indeed more research to be done at this point.

      Best .

    • Oedd,

      Yes, I understand RES not a producer. I was thinking the cheaper NG gets, the fewer wells that are operating, therefore, the reduced need for services.

      On the surface, RES appears to be a good opportunity but this stock has been in steady decline since last Summer and that troubles me. I see some solid fundamentals here and a PEGY ratio of a great value play. Plus this is one of the few small-caps that offer a dividend at a decent payout ratio -- and a decent one at that.

      I'm trying to understand why this is not a $20 stock right now. Why haven't more institutions piled on this thing? The 70% insider ownership bothers me and as does the 28% short position. Why are so many traders trying to short this thing? That's awfully high.

      2011 10-k should be coming out sometime next week. I'll go over that, should be very informative.

    • I'm sorry to say it but I think this is going even lower than I was thinking. There are no short shares available and with any major market correction and a drop in oil and gold, I'm thinking $7.50 to 8 is looking possible. I'm out until some positive signs for this sector arise, which doesn't seem likely very soon. Sorry longs but it looks like dead money right now.IMO

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