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Multiband Anonim ┼×irket Message Board

  • tony_dolgoff tony_dolgoff Mar 26, 2013 8:07 PM Flag

    Expectations for Monday?

    The debt has been refinanced at a better rate with a sound financial institution. Now earnings are on Monday.

    Here is the EBITDA table from the loan agreement:

    Period Adjusted EBITDA
    Fiscal Quarter ended March 31, 2012 $ 2,183,383.00
    Fiscal Quarter ended June 30, 2012 $ 2,040,569.00
    Fiscal Quarter ended September 30, 2012 $ 6,888,461.00
    Fiscal Quarter ended December 31, 2012 $ 3,870,587.00

    Bad year. We knew that. Ok so it looks like Jim missed AGAIN with even though he guided nearly half way through the 4th quarter and even used a guidance range instead of a hard number. Q4 is long gone. In the rear view mirror. I don't care about the absolute results THAT much (since it's 13 guidance that will rule the day), but what concerns me is management's poor visibility. They were wrong all year. About everything. Clearly planning and optimism biases are rearing their ugly heads.

    "Kahneman and Tversky's original explanation for the fallacy was that planners focus on the most optimistic scenario for the task, rather than using their full experience of how much time similar tasks require.[3] One explanation offered by Roger Buehler and colleagues is wishful thinking; in other words, people think tasks will be finished quickly and easily because that is what they want to be the case."

    I'm sure there will be an optimistic guidance for 13, but can it be trusted? I hope they've learned to be more conservative in their projections. I'll say $20mm in EBITDA for 2013 will be their guidance, or roughly +33%. That's not including if they go through with all or any of the MDTV acquisition. The unsecured offering of $20mm might be an attempt at organic MDU growth given the wide range of maturity options. I would hope they will at least, if they don't go through with the acquisition all the way, will buy the most attractive subs who are in the nicest buildings with the lowest turnover, most likely to buy their high speed internet as well.

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