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Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Message Board

  • hermantulen hermantulen Dec 27, 2009 3:52 PM Flag

    Do your math

     

    As I pointed out earlier, Fre delinquency is ~4% that only count for $30B with assumming 100% of delinquency being wipeout.

    Inreality, all short sell and forclosure generate as much FRE will only loss $9B the most.

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    • if you review the 'total' picture (which is the best way to understand business 101) -
      on the low end (FRE) has over 1-trillion in assets
      IF you take the HIGH end of bad/default loans (5%) - that equals to 50-billion
      NOW look at the 'real' money govt gave to both F & F (approx 50-billion each) -
      that's the REAL math -
      AND that's ONLY if you 'lost' the holding/RE (house) which you don't you just repo it -
      So...if anyone is interested in REAL MATH and the REAL story - this is what I've been reviewing/studing/investing in now for close to two years -
      (sorry I simply do NOT believe that there are too many real estate foreclosures (I was attending auctions every two weeks on 'sales' - now I barely can find one every 2-3 months that turn into 'real deals') -

      CNBC - give whatever info they are instructued to but in reality RE sales ALWAYS go down this time of the year -

      Sales slumped slightly the NOV/DEC sales due to the fact that everyone thought the tax credit was done (I called for an extension over 10 weeks before it had expired) -

      Do we see the 3-4 dollar range THIS week (no way) ((with one exception gov't removed FRE from C-ship - only way) -

      My number is we won't see above 1.65 (at best) - I still call the end of the year at 1.40-1.50 range - -

      ((HOPE I'm wrong - I'm long since before .78 pps and if we ever did hit the 5-10 range -- I simply retire!!)) -

      Realestate isn't a gamble when you do your MATH - (I've been calling for people to DO THE MATH since early 2009)

      GLAD someone actually sees the real numbers -

      Frank (vegas)

      Tomorrow (we won't do over 60 million in volume) - at best (unless it's all over the news) -

      Crammer did make ONE statement (although he hates F and F) - he did state 'if you ever want to make money invest in what the gov't invests in!' --- hello Crammer....that F and F!!

 
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