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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

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  • jetbpc jetbpc Dec 22, 2010 11:14 AM Flag

    Target for 2011 - $15-16 range

    It just was not WNR management, but the entire sector crashed.

    TSO went also from $65 to $6.75, VLO from $78 to $14, FTO from $50 to $7.

    WNR problem, the Yorktown dinasour that is not even worth half what they paid for it and they aquired it through the assumption of massive debt. The other issue is the asphalt business. With new construction non-existant, the demand for shingles and all forms of asphalt products is hurting. This is another part of WNR business that will not pick up any time soon.

    This is one interesting company and I do believe you are correct that if we break out above $10.62, and if so, the rest of the move will be driven on technicals and not fundamentals.

    WNR is currently trading at a premium to book value ($7.70). Several other refiners are trading at a discount to book value (TSO $22.73).

    IMO, WNR is fairly valued here and any run should be taken with caution until it breaks and holds $10.62.


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    • Please don't give me those amateurish "fundamental analysis" - I just don't like those message board types with half-empty knowledge in either the real fundamental or the TA.

      You guys have always been misleading - you pretend to know something - a little knowledge in the stock markets is dangerous.

      My approach is to ignore all those "analysis" posted - they are simply no good. When I was shorting this stock from $60 down, I was the most hated here.

      Now, the opposite may be true again - I'm long the stock.

      • 3 Replies to h_grant_h
      • Long, whoa, good for you...

        You state "A little knowledge" - with over 30 years of trading, I've forgotten more than you will ever know.

        Your approach is cutting edge for sure...I'm very surprised you have not been heavily recruited by WS!!!

        I sold yesterday at $10.25 after the great run. My avg price was $5.55, so I made a couple bucks on my 10K shares. This was a technical trade not a fundamental trade.

        I am now waiting for WNR to show what it want's to do.

        You sir, sound like a fool...

      • The big shorts are already in deep red and sitting on a volcano - They have tried to press it down to $8.7 level, but only to have found out that some big funds were waiting for them to make that huge mistake - it's suicidal, literally.

        It has reversed harder - big buyers are not waiting, b/c they can't afford to wait for those shorts to try to suicide for a second time: not gonner happen.

        The risk/reward at this stage is heavily tiled towards the buyers - the volcano will erupt anytime. You want to see an example? I gave you four already: VLO, HOC, TSO and FTO.

24.50+0.47(+1.96%)12:19 PMEDT