Over 33! My God...WNR should be in the mid 20's by now..They must be having a fantastic quarter!
Even at the rate they locked in at around 30% - 27, it was still fantastic....Talk about the street being asleep.
Be patient..When they wake up and figure this out WNR and some others will have a stock price that reflects its true value....At this level, WNR is still a great buy....JMHO......D
WNR is above the 50-day n 200-day SMA, RSI > 50, 6-month chart trend is UP, to a trader-chart user like me WNR has $ making potentail regardless of the mumbo jumbo refinery technical chat of crack spreads etc ... crack spread BS didn't help last year despite the hype on this board and on MSNBC. AND if WNR goes up during BIG crackspreads, it s only a coincidence.
You are correct Doogs, however once again this is something everyone already knows and is now history.
You know as well as I do that markets are forward looking. IMVHO, the sector is not trading on fundamentals. The crack should not be where it is and cannot sustain whre it is without demand destruction (historically it has never been this high and has never stayed this high - I really do not think this is the new normal rathan an anomoly at the moment).
I think the markets are starting to price in GDP growth that is no where near 2% and as I have been stating, I think the economy is heading toward a mild recession and slow down, thus even less demand.
EIA numbers for demand have not seen a positive week in almost a year. Every week the demand is down over a year ago by 5 - 7%...
I am probably wrong, but this sure looks like a bad set-up for the refiners and they are sucking in the last of the bag holders remember late 2007 early 2008 when the same thing was starting to happen, i.e., refiners topping and started falling as the market was still rising and everyone was in denial about the looming recession, which proved to be much worse as we know...
Most people I know have exited the refiners and energy. In fact there has been no accumulation in the sector for two months and in fact it is moving toward low distribution.
I know you are in it for the long haul, I hope that is not a too far out, however, IMVHO, i believe folks will be waiting a very long time for the mid 20's and we may be close to the 2012 high last week.
Time will tell.
BTW - I heard the same about CISCO, SUNW, MSFT and the list goes on when they were all over $100...welll not one of them is even 30% back and probably never will. Wonder how many bought CSCO at $75 - $80 and are still holding thinking it will come back...
AAPL will be the next. Every tech company that has EVER become the biggest by market cap withing 3 years fell and fell hard...
Cushing crack is high because we have a glut of oil in the mid-con and Brent crude prices are high. I see the spread remaining strong until the new pipelines are about ready to be operatonal. Then you'll see both the Brent/WTI and Cushing 321 crack spreads drop with the Brent/WTI spread returning to near parity.
In the meantime, spreads should remain healthy giving WNR at least another year to make a ton of cash. WNR PPS does not follow spreads that close because the market will do what the market will do. That's why I can make money as a trader. However, over the long haul, as WNR rakes in the cash with high crack spreads, they reduce debt and steadily become a more attractive buy. We have seen WNR go from $4 to $20 a share given this exact situation. They will continue to improve rapidly over the next year. The market does look forward and it sees WNR will not have as easy a road to profits in 2014 unless this econ. recovers. So, the market sees the current situation as a bubble which will keep the stock price from getting to wildly high. I do see plenty of room for PPS inprovement during the year.
No, I respectfully do not agree with your thesis...I think WNR is making a killing with the spreads where they are and have been.-And that with Summer approaching it will do just fine.. Remember they hedged around the 27 level..WHy? Because it was so good they couldn't resist!
Keep in mind they On top of that, you have the "Iran Factor" which if anything will drive things
higher.....Ok,,lets take out Iran---I still think there will be consolidation in the sector.
Now in terms of Microsoft being 100, Cisco, etc...Well, that was for sure a balloon. I can not argue that the internet bubble was a blowout..But I think its not really appropriate to compare this sector at its current status with that of Cisco and the like.. Please keep in mind that WNR, VLO, TSO, and many others are no where near their 2007 highs.. No needless to say you could be dead right. That the party is over for WNR and the sector... I am humble enough to know at least this: I can't tell you what the market will do tomorrow no less in 3 to 6 months..... So maybe you are correct.. I am still hanging around as I don't think the rise for WNR is nearly over. I see it as a cash cow with a lot of debt reduction in a good spot in a fundamentally necessary sector.. No refiners, no gas.....We can't do without them.....
With the crack anyplace above the 20 area and everyone is doing fairly well. D
I don't know how much demand destruction can take place in the short term, too many variables in the mix. Iran, East Coast refiner outages, summer driving season. I think people may cut back on the driving to save but I'm not sure how much gasoline that contributes to WNR's bottom line at this time. They are big with diesel and that's not going to stop anytime soon. Thoughts?
I think your right. With this crack spread they have to be raking in the cash. We seem to be in a wait and see period as far as the PPS action goes. Not alot of movement over the past month. But that serves as good consolidation prior to earnings, after a very strong advance in the first two months this year. Time to wait it out.