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BioTime, Inc. Message Board

  • thawedhamster thawedhamster Feb 13, 2001 1:00 AM Flag


    I am terribly sorry, TexBC, that you find my requests to consider Hextend sales so �tedious�. Presumably, had we been talking about beans, rather than Hextend sales, you�d have been all for counting them. But, alas, counting BTX�s only revenue source at the current time is �irrelevant�, or rather �inappropriate�, or �unreliable�.

    My insistence on grounding an investment discussion on hard numbers (starting with sales) is not �nyanyanyanya�. It�s called fundamental analysis. I trust you�ve heard of it.

    You say, �the hopefuls were overly optimistic�. Cappy was hyping $100mm in sales for �00. It looks like they came in below $2mm. You call that �overly optimistic�. Rational people call that �wrong�.

    You say, �while financial accounting & reporting is based on historical facts, consistency and predictability, it's usefulness for projecting forward in the short-term breaks down somewhat in a start up period such as this. Line the first 3 years of numbers for a particular operational activity up next to each other in ANY business entity, and nothing could look less comparable or predictable. So what point would there be in trying to guess ---just go to Vegas and play the roulette wheel if that's what you're into.�

    What did you smoke before making this completely absurd statement, Tex? MOST businesses, particularly healthcare product businesses, become increasingly easier to predict and model after a year of sales data. Just because you may be in the dark on how Hextend is doing (and you may thank BTX for that), doesn�t mean that everyone else must be. You may feel like you�re in Vegas on this one, but I don�t. I am becoming increasingly more comfortable with my Hextend sales estimates and, of course, my estimates have been on the record here. (Yours have not.)

    If you want to buy a list and start calling potential customers, go right ahead. But there is a �point� in appreciating current Hextend sales. They matter for today�s cash needs; they help confirm (or refute) one�s investment thesis, and they contribute highly to a responsible analyst�s continual effort to model the future. It isn�t just a �guess�, Texas, and if you were any kind of bean-counter you�d know that.

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    • what's your point, if your short, why didn`t you cover under 4, what do you really expect to happen to the share price, your risk reward is ludicrous, for an extra 3 bucks your willing to risk an immense short squeeze, over 10% of the float is short, any good publicity whatsoever will fry the shorts, it will have nothing to do with "funnymentals", it is all about perception, qcom to 400, cmrc to 1000, get real, a 3 dollar reward for unlimited risk, not very prudent money management.

      • 1 Reply to drewtrade
      • Drewtrade, I try to buy low and sell high. Selling in the teens and buying in the low single digits would, of course, fit that criteria. There are also many other considerations, like taxes and portfolio weighting, etc, but I may very well have covered some shares lower, or I might not have. That'd be my biz.

        The stock is currently trading near $10, valuing BTX at over $100mm. In my opinion, that is way too high and it should be sold. I agree that there are always technical factors. For example, the high short position (albeit far lower than last year) adds a volatility consideration. However, things like short squeezes are trading phenomenon that usually don't last very long. If you're a great trader and can get in and out just right, super; go for it.

        I have a much higher confidence in my ability to analyze and predict fundamental outcomes. Over longer periods of time, fundamentals will determine stock valuation. Simply put, the fundamentals of BioTime suck. Let's face it; Hextend has been a failure. The pathetic royalty stream isn't enough to cover BTX's expenses and the company is running out of cash. Even allowing for high growth from current levels, that royalty stream just doesn't cut it.

        I believe that just as with this management's last public company, Cryomedical Sciences (CRYM), the shareholders of BTX will take a complete bath. In my opinion, BTX too will trade as a drill bit. What little money ever comes in from Hextend royalties will be squandered on freezing more hamsters and other pet science projects. Cappy would like to call it "vision". I call it bad business.

        In my opinion, the shareholders will never see a dime out of BTX; it's just another public subsidy of Segall & Co's groovy experiments.

        Freeze on, dude!

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