ACTU earnings is on Wednesday, July 27 after hours. Earnings Estimate is $.02/share with $25.2 revenue. In the last CC for Q1, ACTU CEO indicated that ACTU may do better than current estimate for Q2.
Let me give you my 2 cents opinion.
Grass looks greener on the other side. ACTU has been around $1.90 since mid June. At the same time, most stocks especially BI stock have gone up to their 52 weeks high. Most short time investors got frustraded and left. On the other hand, ACTU management is not up to its task to increase shareholders value and also ACTU PR department does not update investors frequently. So, lack of communication and enthusiasm have caused to depress this stock. I also agree with some of the points cash_king made.
This is a fight bewtween the big guys(big orders). Some have to sell ACTU since ACTU is not part of the Russell smallcap anymore and those who are buying don't want to pay premium and like it at bargain prices. When earnings is out, more buyers will be attracted and price will go higher.
I agree with most of what you are saying. The only point that has me dumbfounded is the timing. I too am very frustrated with the management of this company, their lack of response to this whole thing and how this stock reacts (or doesnt) to positive stimuli. I also sometimes wonder if the grass isnt greener somewhere else. (I am not a day trader but have been known to swing....lol). But to give up now ...so close to the earnings announcement with strong whisper numbers out makes no sense to me. the only thing left in my mind is the usual MM shenanigans that very few people truely understand, but the trading blocks dont seem to be large enough to support that theory on a very significant scale....hmmm
I believe in conspiracy theory by other BI businesses. BIRT open source is a threat to all of them including Microsoft. If Actuate succeeds then another BI business may join open source or Actuate may get bought by another bigger BI business and put most of them out of business. Therefore, Actuate should be killed now and that�s what other BI businesses are doing collectively to Actuate.
Let me give you a fresh perspective. I am a subscriber to Peter Leeds. com. I have read his book "To the right of the decimal" that is online for subscribers. I bought this stock in Dec. of 04 based on it being a profiled stock of Peter Leeds. Since then I have averaged down once. And...I am still at 2.34 so I have nothing but lost on this stock. According to Leeds theory I have violated 3 things to savvy stock purchasing. 1. I didn't limit my losses. I really shouldn't even be here according to him. 2. I averaged down. He calls it Average death. 3. I am on the verge of keeping this stock too long. He says if doesn't do something in a reasonable amount of time you should dump it and get something that will. So there you have it. I would like some good intelligent no profanity or name callling comments on this.
It sounds like your more interested in how much to believe of Peter Leeds than of how much you beleive in ACTU. I am a swing trader and do believe in points 1 and 3 with some limitations. I dont ever want to fall in love with a stock to the point that I cant sell it. It is way to easy to get on these boards and believe all the positive hype (yes I know there are bashers on each board) But most people here bought the stock because they beleive it will make them money and they WANT to bleieve good things will happen I DO TOO. But at some point you have given it a fair chance and its time to try somethng else. You can still monitor the stock and if something positive happens and there is a run up just buy in the shorts sell off dip. As for when to average down that is a double edged sword. you are prfessing your faith in a company that enough other investors have given up on as to force the stock down. Its a public announcement that you know more than the sellers (who are in the majority at that point) do. When you are right you cover your investment and make money and when your wrong (which is more common) you just lose more money. The one time I think averaging down actually puts the odds in your favor is is when your LONG on a fundamentally strong company. Its a good way to take advantage of seasonal dips in a company you plan to hold for the long haul.
HOWEVER, having said all that, this definately NOT the time to sell. Earnings are coming out soon and the whisper numbers are good. Who in their right mind would sell now? A few weeks from now you will be better able to appraise your situation and decide to get out or accumulate and become a long. Its all just a personal preference.
Let me give my 2 cents opinion.
1- Timing has become an imortant factor in the market investment. Those who sold their stocks at first day of the market after 9/11 and then bought back the same stocks a week later made huge money.
2- You had opportunity to sell all or part of your ACTU shares with at least 10% profit but you gambled and you lost. You should have exited at least at your cost.
3- They say market and stocks don't have memory and every day is a new day. The market does not care how much you have lost or how long you have kept ACTU. You are as new as a person who is buying today and you should look at your situation the same way. Don't let the past interfer with your present decisions. You should look at ACTU today and make evaluation with current situation and tell yourself is ACTU a good buy at current prices and how much potential it has and much you can gain in a fixed period of time. If ACTU can go only to $2.25 then exit at that price and don't wait for getting all your losses back. At least sell part of your holding at reasonable gain and wait for next opportunity to buy them back.