Did you watch A/H trading last night? Vol. was huge on the downside & closing in on 40-BEFORE the market even opened today! To be honest I would have expected at least another 2-4 points down today all things considered[36-37?]Didn't happen. I also notice a lot of new arrivals on the board-obviously on the short side. I would bet a lot of this selling vol. today is not the diehard longs-but new selling from shorts. You might remember I was playing the short side at 45 mo's ago-It was pretty damn frustrating!-and I do a lot of shorting! Yourself,roman,wilkes,cigar seem to be the only ones left. My point is, there was a VERY SUBSTANTIAL amount of "hard core" short interest BEFORE the last couple of days. Add in all the new arrivals and you get the ingredients for a squeeze play. Also remember this last earnings report was not unexpected & not near as bad as it could have been. Regardless of what the CNBC "talking heads" are saying, I have been watching the tape -Inst. holders do not appear to be wholesale dumping. I don't know about amzn being "rigged" geegenjar--But it sure has a way of defying gravity most of the time. Ask the folks that were short at 35--many mo. ago. Most of the time this POS defies T/A-& fundamentals. good luck
>>>My point is, there was a VERY SUBSTANTIAL amount of "hard core" short interest BEFORE the last couple of days. Add in all the new arrivals and you get the ingredients for a squeeze play.<<<
Put options at the close of Tuesday (before earnings), had a very high premium already. [The implied volatility indicated about 75%, compared to 45% of days prior.]
>>> Also remember this last earnings report was not unexpected & not near as bad as it could have been. Regardless of what the CNBC "talking heads" are saying, I have been watching the tape -Inst. holders do not appear to be wholesale dumping.<<<
I don't think institutions are any smarter than we are. They just buy when they get new money and sell when they have to raise cash to pay for redemption.
In any case, institutions must have AMZN shares because AMZN is the number one e-tailer. Their decision making is as simple as that. They just buy number ones from all industries.
>>> I don't know about amzn being "rigged" geegenjar--But it sure has a way of defying gravity most of the time.<<<
My take of the market is that the whole thing is rigged, including every stock. Each stock has a sponser. The sponser is in charge of each move, up or down.
I have been day trading amzn since the breakout in summer time, and agree it is hard to say conspiracy and manipulation so I don't even go there, I just take things for what they are, and how this stock trades defies logic, so if you can get into the contrarian flow it can be profitable.
My worst trade on this think was not shorting and holding the 46 spikes and hedge with some options. I did not hold my shorts into earnings due to the fact this thing trades so screwey.
I had 5-6 trades in the open 45 minutes, and took a short at the end of the day and the plan right now is too watch it like a hawk and see. My best guess like yours is 35-36, IMHO I see the support at 34.
My reasons are fairly simple, I'll use a Warren Buffet quote, "best business's have a moat around them" . ie, microsoft and dell, google, etc., warrens favorite coke and washington post, man them pols love to talk, lol
Anyways, IMHO, yesterday the moat was finally and unequivocably breached, period, end of story.
I'll use myself as an example. I read 150 books a year. Amazon in the past I'd buy about 20 a year at 20 a pop = 400 , well I still buy 20 and all used = 80 ( some of those used books are as low as 1.5 some as high as 6 , yet my average 4 )
All of those books come from used book sellers all around the country. I do not know specifics, yet, best guess let's take 100% profit excluding costs on both, they use to have a profit before costs of 200 bucks one me, now 40 .
I liked that amazon never ever spammed me, only occasionally a special coupon or shipping discount. Well, you guessed it, I have been getting emails about suggested specific books. So, here I see them violating a priciple in pursuit of new sales, meaning they gotta have them no matter what to pay cost structure.
Won't get into the CC it was what it was. Basic take is when the going get's tough the tough get going. Amazon had a big lead in the race, still does sales and brand wise, yet everyone else got tough and tougher. Similar to all the hotel room discounter stuff, that biziness changed like a new born kid in 3 years from we're exclusive to uh-oh, guess not.
Yes, on tape saw very little big block trading. MM's have more discipline, ie, don't panic, wait and see, what they saw wasn't good. I guess they could defend the stock, yet, my take on MM's is most are behind and any sane one knows this one will not save them, they could show up to buy for a few days and be only one at party real quick, too much risk, plus I don't think the downgrade boys downgrade without shorting the highs. What I did see tape wise was tons of big transactions near the highs, wonder which way they were going now?
Plus, and this is just my take, I think the market as a whole is in very precarious position, and I do not say this lightly, I look at hundreds of charts a day and it's is shorter delight anywhere you want to look.
My take away is that all the contract manufacturers say their business sucks sucks sucks, yet, tech will rally, well the guys that build their stuff don't have increasing orders actually decreasing orders, so I could very well be wrong I don't see increased sales and profits for the tech folks.
I posted a post titled "4 yr. chart tells it all"
that's my tell
thanks for your time and good luck to all
when I take a long term position I tend to read posts cause I learn alot, a ton and appreciate it all, so thanks in advance