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  • timberlane_99 timberlane_99 Feb 3, 2009 7:43 PM Flag

    "Despite a Runup, Amazon Shares Are Still on Sale"

    People wonder who buys AMZN here, well, here is your answer:

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    • an example of the reinforcement. Peter Yip of CHINA always released 4 or 5 updates per quarter of how his quarter was going. Yes, 4 or 5 every 90 days as absurd as it was.

      He always headlined his PR's with non-gaap results and often only put gaap (non one-time items) in a very hard to find fine print or only in the filings the public doesnt read.

      Funds enabled his behavior by bidding his stock often up 10 or 15% on each update during the quarter.

      Everyone knew how stupid it was because earnings were maybe 4 cents GAAP and 30 cents NON GAAP.

      Also, analysts and media reporters touted non-gaap and ignored other negatives.

      So basically you had a corrupt conflict of interest orgy, that you still have today, infesting many things in this market.

      Theres so much corruption, i have seen nearly everything last 15 years, that it is insurmountable to change things lacking a complete implosion of these markets and a revolt by the population against the enablers + government.

      Like i said, and like roubini says, theres no where to hide, and you should be out of all stocks right now and in cash or other things until you can figure out what happens with this corruption orgy we have here.

    • bottom line yes its clever guidance scamming tactics, but would not have any effect if it wasnt reinforced by funds and other people with similar conflicts of interest such as media, flipping analysts who do favors etc..

      the fact is you have a company who deceives or exaggerates etc.. you have enablers who carry it out (analysts and market makers and funds) and you have government who is either in bed, or ignorant.

      so you have a axis of corruption so to speak, with 3 equal contributors to enabling several mini ponzi schemes and manipulative (against 1934 SEC acts) trading schemes.

    • not clever timberland. this "scam" or deception only works when you have a stocks that have been rigged or for the most part controlled by people with conflicts of interest.

      for example. how can 5 funds, of whom all have the same goal (to get a stock higher), of whom all control most of the stock outstanding, of whom all co-mingle..

      the system is flawed and basically rigged. therefore, if the public was truly in control of all of these stocks, with only very little inolvement from market makers (to ensure orderly trading), you would have much less buying interest at absurdly high levels.. and much less selling interest at absurdly low levels.

      right now, the system is imploding and the government is trying to cover it up. which won't work. when a system is corrupt and people see it, they will not participate in it.

      you will see volumes shrink very substantially in all stocks by 2010 IMO.

    • Economic riots in France and England.

    • > "ok, we'll be nice zero growth,, is that an increase in estimates? 6% growth is that and increase in estimates?"

      Well, you're getting that nice big foreign exchange back draft we were talking about.

      USD/GBP is up some 40%.
      USD/EUR is up some 23%.

      Amazon has to grow that fast in each of those countries just to keep revenues even with last year. So it's amazing that Amazon gave the guidance they did. But is the health of the business measured in terms of the local currency or the USD?

      Anyway, enjoy the exchange rate effects while it lasts.

    • "I think it's funny people put so much emphasis on the low end which in Amazon's case never happens."

      Which is what makes it easy for AMZN to "beat". So by putting such a wide range on guidance, AMZN can make it look like they are raising guidance, while at the same time, lowering expectations so far that its almost impossible to miss. Clever.

    • ok, we'll be nice zero growth,, is that an increase in estimates? 6% growth is that and increase in estimates?

    • I think it's funny people put so much emphasis on the low end which in Amazon's case never happens.

    • What margins is this talking about, they are razor thin and decreasing.

    • Let me understand this. On this post your promoting the long side of an investment in Amazon but on the "Has anyone even seen a kindle" post your arguing with me on as if I was short? Are you an equal opportinuity agitator?

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