Now we have established that $145 is the short term top. What should be your target price to cover or sell your puts?
This rally started from $95 after Q3 earning report. The major movement is $50. ($145 - $95 = $50)
The three target prices are to retrace 0.62, 0.5 and 0.38 of the major movement.
$50 x 0.62 = $31 $50 x 0.50 = $25 $50 x 0.38 - $19 $145 - $31 = $114 $145 - $25 = $120 $145 - $19 = $126
So one of $114, $120 and $126 should be your target price.
Coincidentally, $120 and $126 are also the target prices according to resistance/support lines using technical analysis as the day after Q3 earning report, AMZN gained 25% to $120, then the next day it gained another 5% to $125. $120 and $125 are the stops from bottom way up. They should be the stops from top way down.
My conclusion is that you should sell your December puts when it hits $126. For people having longer horizon, your target price should be spread among the three targets. You should sell/cover one third of your position at a time when AMZN hits the three target prices.
Actually just take the low of the wave structure of 34.65 from the $ 145.90. That's about $ 111.00 dollor difference. So .38 fib is $ 103.72. .50 fib is $ 90.40. .618 fib is $ 77.00. .716 fib is $ 66.20. I also believe that wave III is on it's way. You should check out elliot wave international Rob Prechtor is a genius! You can learn more about wave structures there!
$126 is the sure thing. And $120 and $114 are very reachable. But it is hard to predict after the Fibonacci retracement. Personally I don't see $95 coming in the near future in terms of three month time frame.