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  • Younessi Younessi Jul 27, 2011 12:02 PM Flag

    Not a single honest analyst

    has come out about the lowered profit and other issues with 2nd qtr.

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    • Honesty is when someone tells you something you don't want to hear. It sounds like you want an analyst to tell you Amazon is a ponzi scheme that is about to crash. Since you already know that, an analyst who says that is useless for you.

      Although I am long AMZN, your concerns have some merit. During the last quarter, Amazon's expenses grew faster than revenue. Obviously, that cannot be sustained long. Amazon's stock price places quite on those earnings and revenues as well. Finally, the stock price has doubled since 7/7/2010, while revenues increased only 41% and earnings about 27%.

      You are, however, overlooking several key facts. 1)The earnings report was for the 2nd quarter and retailing generally does poorly during the 2nd quarter and makes it money during the 4th quarter. So the cost increases may be seen as preparation for 4th quarter. 2) Amazons earnings of $0.41 / share exceeded analysts expectations by 0.11/share and it revenue growth blew away expectations. 3) Amazons year over year growth has been running 27% but these revenues and earnings suggest that growth rate may be accelerating.

      So here is my assessment. There is about an 80% probability that AMZN is over priced at the moment. If it is overvalued, there is an equal probability of the price moving sideways and of the price falling. So the shorts have 40% chance of making money and a 20% probability of losing money. So my recommendation is a long that means I have a tight stop loss on the stock. Of course...what do I know. Since taking this position on July 7, 2011, I am 4% richer, i.e., my stop loss is 4% higher, so I now wish I had bought more.

      • 3 Replies to drq82
      • Scamazon missed the drastically lowered EPS of 35 cents. Management needed an extra week to cook the books so that non-GAAP EPS can be inflated to 41 cents, giving the illusion of a huge beat. Total revenue beats by a mere 6%.

      • Your post is filled with falsehoods. Too many to count, actually.

        AMZN presented LOWER earnings, when compared to the SAME Quarter last year (so, irrelevant whether it is the 2nd or 3rd or whatever).

        They lowered guidance heavily - earnings are ALREADY contracting and forecast to contract even faster. There is NO growth, not versus last year, and not going forward.

      • actually honesty is being truthful, and saying that margins contracted and earnings barely beat the walked down numbers of 34 cents from 66 cents, 11 cents which, was an investment sell to get that 41 cent number. that's pathetic. not extolling the virtues of pumpanomics. honesty is someone on TV telling the public that AMZN has it's earnings walked down into most earnings reports so they can play "beat the number" when , indeed, they didn't . Bubbles are formed from these repeated actions.

    • They are paid by thief banks.

    • BFG did. Only because he's the ONLY honest, too!

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