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  • techstrategy techstrategy Nov 13, 2012 8:08 PM Flag

    Sybs, short the builders at will if they cap deductions...

    I know you've been short the builders before. I never have, but I might even change my favorite short candidates if all the chatter on limiting deductions holds. I cannot think of a faster way to absolutely obliterate the "nascent" housing recovery than to essentially eliminate the mortgage interest deduction, which is what the proposed caps would effectively do for any home worth a few hundred thousand or more... It will affect the builders first new buyers will be willing to pay far less for homes in an era of capped mortgage interest deductions. But, it will ultimately kill existing homes sales and all real estate prices in the process...

    For all those that believe a compromise will make everything okay, you might want to start thinking of issues like this. The money is going to come from somewhere. In the proposed case, it will largely come from upper middle class and lower upper class families (but it will work out just fine for the .1% who could scale charitable giving back and would benefit from keeping the existing top rates on all income and for those who pay little to no tax today) compared to the default increases.

    I wonder what the compromise will do to consumption?... I guess this will have to stay my favorite short...

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    • Anyone watching CNBC and what is happening to builders today? At some point, people will start thinking about future dynamics than trading past trends... All you trendies are gonna get crushed...

    • Tech,

      Sybs just finished covering tol With some nice gvcken gainz... Sybs will look to reopen shorts at 35.00 +... Its bounce time for stox.... They will be bouncing to new all time highz before crashing (except for amzn - 264.11 iz its all time high)... Sybs coveref some amzn, still haz mucho scamazn short. Sybs will be adding to this short position.....

      • 2 Replies to philandjoel1e
      • Sybs:

        Stocks, like inflation, are not monolithic. Some stocks will certainly bounce from here. It won't be the usual SS subjects because they've burned most of their short interest fire. The only thing keeping this up is weekly option buyers hoping to get rich quick.

        I'm plenty comfortable holding and adding to all of my short positions, and long positions for that matter. If they ever were to extend LT capital gains threshold to 2 or 3 years, these MOMO stocks would crash in a heartbeat. No one would be willing to hold the risk that long... Conversely, money would flow into the real investments that have been held back. Matter of time. They need the revenues and the best way to accomplish it is to limit the increase but extend the horizon. They'd get a windfall because everyone would sell these like crazy...

      • So last week we we're about to crash and now this statement? Lmfao!! you certainly are a "sybil" if you are now calling a "bounce" to new highs a bounce. its called a bull market idiot!! And you were just calling for a crash last week. so what happened? you're tradin gods misleed you or somethiing? "bouncing to new highs" why don't you just say we're about to up another leg in the bull market idiot? All your scroom/doom posts for nothing bu correction to spx 1370 idiot. lol! you need to clarify what you just said after all your doom posts: "bouncing' to new highs? Lol!

    • very few make over $250k per year actually working. Most people make this type of money because of their investments. So the lions share of the tax burden will be squarely on the shoulders of wall street. Obamas base isn't getting its $$ from wall street so he can tax the wealthy at will.

      This may be a once in a lifetime short opportunity. The wealthy are starting to sell as we've seen in dividend paying stocks that were priced to perfection because of the divdend premium as there were no other places to get a return. NOw even dividends won't return anything.

      so the only play left is shorting the market.

      Obama Mugabe......welcome to Zimbabwe.

      • 1 Reply to erbium_doper
      • Capital gains and dividends should both go up to 20%, with LT capital gains requiring 3 year minimum holding period (else be taxes at income rates). Then, the scam that passes as investing but is actually just trading would return to investing in productive assets and the REAL economy would actually start to grow and recover again...

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