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  • once_on once_on Nov 21, 2012 5:50 PM Flag

    AMZN growth concerns: They will add less revenue in 2012 than in 2011.

    For the first time ever, AMZN will add less incremental revenue than in a previous year. with Q4 quidance, AMZN should add less revenue in 2012 than 2011 (incremental 2012 revenue is guided to $12B - $14.5B). They added $13.9B in 2011 vs 2010. This plus a #$%$ 3-4% FCF yield deserves a 130 P/E ????

    How the hell are they supposed to add $120B over the next 5 years based on the slowing growth? Seems like $13-$14B is the cap for AMZN growth. Which means valuation will be crushed over next 12 months or sooner.

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    • There is much more to come... See my post on Google's approach and ecosystem. Trust me, Google is focused on Amazon, not Apple as its #1 target. The hundreds of millions of devices for Google were simply a means to extend its search/advertising dominance. Google Now and Shopping are going to provide a whole new level of value to advertisers and consumers alike.

      The bottom line is that Amazon has competed (with an unjust tax subsidy) with retailers. The vast majority will align behind a Google centric solution that minimizes channel conflict (Wal-Mart and Target would be wise to take the lead on such integration, as should category dominant big box players with big geographic footprints). Given their huge existing footprint and relative ease / leverage in connecting their systems to Google Shopping / Now, they could put a HUGE dent in Amazon's business and growth.

      Matter of (not too much) time before the next wave kicks in. Despite what everyone is saying, Amazon IS NOT very well positioned for it.

      Bring it on.

    • might want a double top - very strong action - don't fight the tape - the day us longs exit is when u get short - you get long on the dip and out by eod seems to work well with this bounce we are getting in the "party is almost over" market. just don't hold a hot potato :)

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