Lets Compare Notes--Bulls & Bears, what price levels would get you concerned?
I would get concerned if volume on the rallies started to increase. So far, low volume has not confirmed the rally. As far as price goes, If AMZN exceeded $300 on better than expected earnings/revenues (unlikely imo), that might indicate a blowout top in the $320-340 area. But the volume would have to confirm. I still believe the most likely scenario is a significant pullback (20%?) after earnings on Jan 29, since I'm 90% certain they will be less then consensus. Ultimately, a retest of the $205 area. If earnings and revenues exceed estimates seems very unlikely given the macroeconomic picture--weak retail sales + sales taxes.
I am expecting a beat on EPS and very small beat on sales. AM drop but recovery the next day for a net very small increase (to around 278). Followed by a slow continued drop for the next 3 months (to around 250) and then a bigger drop once Q1 earnings posted in April (to around 230 range).
I'll sell some at $290, more at $310. I hope you're right about 20% pull back, but I doubt it. Why would the price get run up like this before earnings? I suspect that insiders know earnings will be good, and they expect a bump. So do I.
And sybil asks "why sell when you presume infinity?"
Btw - good luck with that.... Dont be surprized when your piggy goalz turn into 180 and lower baggie salez... It alwayz happenz, pumperz overstay last call at the bar and get tossed out on their ars. Even the onez that lie and paper trade - thoze are the guyz looking to get laid with the BMW key chain on their 1987 yugo.... Too funny how stok tradez parrallel life. Sybs seen it all.