Chance of a Chipotle-style stock collapse after earnings--62.543%
Would love to know why you feel confident of a miss on EPS. I am assuming a beat on EPS. That was certainly what happened last year and the expectations have been guided down so low. As I posted earlier, I am guessing the stock price movement you mentioned (AH down, but right back up next day). This is a challenging short but I think there will be sub-250 opportunity if you are willing to wait as long as 3 months.
Where should i start???
1) have you seen their esp result from the past year??? q4 2011 eps = 0.38, q1 2012 eps = 0.28, q2 eps = 0.01, and q3 2012 eps = -.6 (a loss of $0.60 per share)... do you notice a trend???
2) it has widely been reported that holiday sales have disappointed. Comscore reported you growth of 14%... amzn is suppose to do 27%
3) sales tax has was collected in ca, pa an tx (very large markets) and there are reports that sales have lagged other states.
4) the average rev per unit sold is trending down, while shipping costs are flat to up. this pressures margins.
5) they cut prices on aws (their cloud services) by 25%.
I don't see how they hit an eps of 0.27.
Even if they do, they will have negative earnings for the year!!!