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  • sybil_lives sybil_lives Feb 2, 2013 9:14 AM Flag

    hbf5: I guess the idea would be if you play options game is to mimic the "sellers" around the max pain activiity

    "Re: hbf5: I guess the idea would be if you play options game is to mimic the "

    Robot Having institionz with statistically significant control of the float like FMR - Fidelity (fido) will buy theze put optionz underwritten by retailerz will buy these thingz up in drovez when retailerz start thinking that they can 'do it like the institutionz do' and sell put optionz... Upon loading up on these trash puts, they will promtly unload their underlying sharez that they have ridden up to the moon for 4.5 yearz solid post nov 2008 and take 0 loss in the selling frenzy az they are 'hedged' by their freshly minted puts underwritten in retailer'z blood...

    When will retailerz understand that fido can "see" in real time what is going on with the statistically significant portion of the float that they own the same data that takes months for a retailer to see in stale SEC reports.... Here are just a few thingz that Bot runnerz can see on their float control:

    Margin leverage to the long side from their 3 rd party trade accounts for which they can extrapolate to the universe of the stock float using basic statistics and probabilities

    Number of sharez loaned to their internal broker desks for shorting and the margin levelz of accounts held short for which they can extrapolate to the universe of the stock float using basic statistics and probabilities

    All open interest optionz data with nano second number crunching az the set the optimal bet line valuez for option greek variable valuez.

    And then to boot... Theze idiots managing the HNW client side (the real money for which FMR iz accountable by individual account ownerz and trustees) have a universe of no consequence 2030 "agressive growth" buy high baggie retirement funds that they can unload theze pigs too with one quick phone call to the manager of theze 'retirement funds' that have 0 accountability...

    retailer that have at least the capacities of fmr that sybs listed above with an armada of robots programmed by the phd that got laid off from nasa and trillionz of dollarz of other peoplez money should by all meanz play optionz... If not, then they should at least recognize that they are a patsy at the card table being dealt from the bottom of the deck. Retailerz that recognize that they would indeed be an option game patsie if they played dont play (ie sybil). Onez that do recognize this and play anyway are sworn crack addicts - they have a differwnt behavioral problem that goez beyond trading options... And ones that dont know they are patsies (ala playerz that tried 3 yearz ago) are broke or will be broke as they keep hitting the optionz crack pipe...

    Weekly optionz went into play 4 yearz ago, sybil tried them 2 x over that time with some small bets and immediately realized how gamed theze things were, and has been warning people since... They dont get it... Options are derivatives, and retailerz dobt have a chance unless they know how to perform liniear algebra and diff eq's, can control a few key variables with other peoples gun powder, and got A plusses in through 3 or 4 college courses of stats and probabilities at princeton or stamford, and have a MIT rocket scientist code writer input well researched and thought out algos into a bank of the fastest computers on the planet that are plugged directly into the nyse / euronext exchange to limit delay of data

    Good luck though... Sybs will be routing for you from the sidelines with a bag full of shorts without a time limit.

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    • sybil forgot to mention a very important advantage that institutions have over retailerz that dare to play against them in both the stok and particularly the timed optionz areana:

      A complex communicationz network to the mass media for which to control giganic herdz of sheeples behavior to such a pervasive extreme that they can convince the public massez to buy with a smile at the very tops and sell while they are crying at the very bottoms of markets with a sense of relief that they did so - very powerful : influencing behavior.

      Couple that with the fact that they have the full backing of the fed as 'too big to fail' and the surety of bring bailed out when they get it wrong without 1 cent of 'moral hazard'.

      Again, unless you have all of these aformentioned capabilities and / or fully recognize that you dont then you should not play any component of the markets, particularly crack head optionz.

      Dealing options iz like strapping on a suicide vest, and then posting a video on utube telling the world the date time and place (strike price) that you will blow yourself up... Even a palestinian terrorist iz smarter then that, plus they get 21 virginz in the end where you just end up broke.

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