already lost 20 percents from its 52-week high.
Under calmer market conditions, AMZN should stay over 300.
However, the wild card is a 5 to 10 percent market pullback, those that bought AMZN within a year's time will cut their losses.
Human nature...don't confuse stock price with what a great company AMZN is/was.
MSFT peaked at 60 in 2000; look at GE or YHOO.
Good point about all the great companies trading at fractions of former bull market highs many years later.
I'd say the 5 to 10 percent pullback is a very ordinary and frequent event. The wild card longs need to be aware of is the 40% drop that happens every few years. One of those bear markets will squeeze all the air out of a stock like Amazon that relies on positive future expectations to inflate it's price. In a deeply freaked out pessimistic market, stock prices get crushed down below the most conservative valuations. In that situation the discussion will be whether it will hold above 30, not 300.
Nevertheless, we still have conviction in our five-year operating margin target in the mid-single-digit range, and view the July 24 pullback as a potential buying opportunity. Our $400 fair value estimate is unchanged, as a modest reduction to our 2014 operating margin forecast to 0.6% will be offset by an uptick to our 2015 operating margin assumptions to 1.5% to reflect the anniversary of recent AWS price reductions. Hope that helps..