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  • toycruiser toycruiser Jan 16, 1998 10:46 AM Flag

    short this next Tuesday?

    Technical analysis shows that AMZN may run up to $62 3/4 by sometime next week.... So $62 may be a good time to short AMZN and anywhere between $60 ~ $60 3/4 seems like a reasonable shorting range for a conservative shorter(it there is such a thing...)

    JSlicker and others were way too early to short AMZN last week.

    Any other tech analysis?
    BTW, DO NOT rely too much on ta for your decision making...

    My formula: 80% Fundamental Analysis, which tells me to short.
    10% Technical Analysis, which tells me not to short at this time and price, and wait for a better price and graph...
    and 10% praying hard, God tells me to short this baby!(just kidding)

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    • With exceptions (story stocks being hyped, primarily), the market is rational. You will find a very high correlation between Cash Flow Return on Investment and Price/Earnings ratio and a fairly good correlation between average annual return on assets employed and the P/E ratio.

    • As I speculated in my previous message, I believe that is a good stock for long term investors who are willing to
      build up their positions over time while enduring high volatility. Right now, the stock does seem to be overpriced and
      speculative, since we can only see the Company from a bookseller framework. But long-term investors such as the Motley Fool Portfolio are
      counting on the company to expand into new businesses as it builds on the value of its brand name ('s most valuable

      What price should we buy AMZN at? Some people pull out numbers from thin air like 20, 30, and 40... while others think that
      62 3/16 is a good price. But what do these numbers really mean? The current stock price reflects a real optimism about the
      future of the Company. But as we all know, the stock market is not a rational animal. I think to figure out where to buy, we have
      to just watch the company and the stock closely. If you are confident about the future of this company (and I'm talking about
      decades of future growth here), then just keep dollar cost averaging. But keep your eyes open -- things change very quickly in the
      web-retailer world.

      Good luck to all and it's good to see plenty of people who aren't just hypeing or ranting!

    • rbco, please dont take this personally but, you are a moron! Don't you understand sarcasm when you see it? point is
      clear to those who do. Valuation, based on P/S and earnings is ridiculous and the small float is the only thing keeping this up.
      The real float will increase by 19 million shares this year as the insiders sell out. They do this 2 ways. By straight share
      selling (probably coming after the earnings release) and by selling NAKED IN THE MONEY selling Feb 45 calls, take in
      the premium and then get the stock called away from them at expiry. You will notice how at each expiration the 'float' will
      increase...................anything else I can teach you?

    • Seems to me that you cannot recognize irony when you see it. Being long AMZN here might cloud anyone's vision.

    • Hi,

      Please dont take this the wrong way. Your posts are idiotic and offer no insight to this board. I'm sure you are a decent person, eventhough your posts portray you to be a jerk.

      Respectfully yours,


    • Everyone on WALL STREET is going to be recommending this stock. Just close your
      eyes and BUY. You can NEVER lose. It's only 63 dollars a share. SO CHEAP. Only
      1.5 BILLION dollar market cap! Sales are going to be OVER 100 million for last
      year! Who cares about all the competition?! AMZN is now a superior brand name.
      Who cares if BKS sells books cheaper, and gives you a nice place to stroll around and
      get out of the house and enjoy the real world! REAL people BUY online and never
      leave the house! 15 times P/S ratio is a BARGAIN...No earnings for the next 2 years
      is IRRELEVANT as long as we keep buying and never sell!.....the float is only 3
      million shares and the small investor controls it all! I am sure the insiders and venture
      capitalists who funded AMZN will NEVER sell their 19 million shares to realize a
      profit. They will ride it to 1000$. And so will we! WE will all be RICH. It is so EASY.
      BUY AMZN and retire in 2 years...................;^)

    • Come on everyone! It just downticked 1/8!!! Where was your bid?! 1000 dollars in 2
      years is a SURE THING....Forget about normal valuations! This is different! This is
      AMZN. Everyone will buy the stock and Wall Street will ALWAYS recommend it. If
      you just buy and hold there will never be any stock to sell! The insiders will NEVER
      sell their 19 million shares! We control the market with our 3 million share float! We
      will drive it to 1000$ or more! Call your friends, mortgage the house , break out the
      kids college fund! This is a SURE THING!!!................;^)

    • I guess I was wrong. Silly to ever sell short AMZN. Books are the most valuable asset
      in the world and I personally will spare no expense until I have bought every book
      AMZN has for sale. Just keep buying the stock. As long as we keep buying the stock
      it will ALWAYS go up. Nothing on planet earth is better than AMZN. 300 dollars by
      yearend is a sure thing. 700$ by next year. Even that may be too conservative. Since
      noone will ever sell the stock (insiders will NEVER realize their profits) there will be no
      way this stock can ever come back down. Soon everyone will hear about this
      phenomenon and the stock will be in even more demand. AND NOONE WILL
      SELL! And soon everyone on the planet will be on the internet buying everybook they
      ever wanted only from AMZN. The stock is sure to go to 1000 $ or higher by 2001.
      This is early retirement time for all the longs ......hang on we are all gonna be

    • I agree with your post #238, and i
      also sold AMZN at around $60 a share.

      I most definitely want to own this
      company again in the future. When
      would you Repurchase AMZN(at
      what price, when?)
      Thanks for your informed view.

    • Hey,

      Not to harsh at all. Give me some time to do some in depth research and i will reply back with my answer. BTW, Jim Rogers,
      who I follow closely and was surprised to see how similar are portfolios are this year, has been down on all these types of
      stocks for years, remeber he was short intel at 30. I believe what Jim does is balance his portfolios ( just as i do). If he is
      wrong on 20 % of his picks, he will do just fine. If I (and my clients for that matter) am wrong on this one and it goes to ZERO,
      we will do just fine.

      So, I'll respond, it might take a week. Also, thanks for the site, I will check it out. I too like these debates, questions like yours force me to look deeper. I dont expect to change my opinion, but, i would have no shame in doing so if my analysis and more of a hunch was wrong.



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