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  • BunyipJim BunyipJim Sep 23, 1999 10:21 PM Flag

    Yes, the bear market is here!

    ...at least, in the long term. Look at it this
    way. The trade deficeit is expanding, yes. But the US
    economy doesn't just *spend* wealth, it *produces*
    it--and at a far greater rate than it spends it. The
    reason the market is overvalued is because it's flooded
    with money from IRAs, 401(k)s, and various other
    pension and insurance funds. Where's that money going to
    go? Savings accounts at 2% interest? CDs and bonds at
    5 to 6% interest? Savings bonds? Mattresses? I
    doubt it.
    My scenario--and I'll be the first to
    point out that I'm not an economist or any sort of
    expert on the subject--is that any pullback will simply
    be the result of people pulling back--not out!--from
    the market and looking for bargains. Tomorrow may
    well be Black Friday. But the money has to go
    somewhere, and it won't sit on the sidelines for long. Next
    week, in my humble opinion, will be the Blue-Light
    shopper's heaven.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • you? I mean a real one, maybe you have. Where did
      the money go in 29, where did it go 87? It is just
      numbers on a playing field in space. Real money tends to
      go to the safety of bonds, CDs, back to banks,
      com-paper, T-bills, money market accounts, gold, property,
      oil and gas, Japan, and Europe. A lot of it just
      disappears. It is like this, you purchased a car for 100.00,
      and you have to sell it for 10.00, where did the
      90.00 go? It is the same when you purchase a stock for
      100.00 and no one wants to buy it for 100.00, so it
      drops, no one wants to buy it for 50.00 so it drops, no
      one wants to buy it for 25.00, so it drops, you sell
      it for 1. where did the 99. go? Think about it. It
      is all based upon value my good friend. It is only
      worth what you can sell it for. When the buyers are no
      longer buying what happens, the stock drops. Sure every
      month people invest in their 401k, pension plans, so
      on. Some of these plans lose money, just like munis,
      and so on. You are only fooling yourself if you
      believe that it could not happen. When the sellers
      out-number the buyers you have a problem. We have a problem.
      The sellers out number the buyers. Yes there are
      buyers out there, but not nearly as many as the sellers.
      Everyone wants to make a profit so we are all potential
      sellers. The problem is we all or most of us want to sell
      now before October and make a profit but there are
      not as many buyers to pick up the stocks at the
      current prices. I watched the market today. I saw the
      buyers come in but there was not enough so the market
      just kept dropping. I am talking about the DOW. The
      NAS was full of buyers this morning but by this
      afternoon no one wanted to buy. Tomorrow, there will be
      blood in the streets because every one still wants to
      sell, the buyers are believe that there is a lot more
      room for the market to fall before they can pick up
      the bargins. Look, I am not happy that the market has
      fallen and will continue to fall. It does me no good nor
      helps any one.

 
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