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  • capt84 capt84 Oct 26, 1999 7:03 AM Flag

    Tech Tuesday

    Watch these stocks run today ladys and gentlemen.
    It'd e-tailing day and AMZN is the king. Could open @
    84 and go to 86. Maybe higher if there is news. TEch
    confer and AMZN will hype today.

    Have fun longs
    and to bad shorts

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    • The estimates I have access to suggest ebay is on
      a forward p/e of about 400....obviously they are
      only estimates... but ebay does make a profit, they do
      have barriers to entry ( amzn can't get critical masss
      for its auctions) and although the valuation is
      ludicrous for a 50% a year grower over the next 5 years,
      the explosion in earnings over the next 12 months
      does justify a valuation of something like half where
      ebay actually tades right now.

    • I didn't short but would have if I could...the 60 day rule applies to options also....I am sitting on cash waiting for re-entry at a cheaper price.

    • Sonny, you're not gonna need to buy me that drink, 'cause
      I don't plan on being wrong! And I'll be sure to let you know
      about it.
      Today I'm just trying to hide a "long" face. xxxooo

    • I'm not manic/depresive! I'm just very, very
      happy when Jenncom speaks to me, and a little sad when
      she doesn't, OK maybe a little debilitated, OK<OK
      so I had to trade keyboards because I flooded the
      other one, but that doesn't make me manic/depresive!
      Seriously, I've been a student of Mr. Market for over a
      quarter century, and have to agree with everything you
      said. I gave my copy of 'The Intelligent Investor' to
      my daughter.

    • *******eom*******

    • cent net of charges. However, like your favorite
      company, it operates at a loss, although not so deep of
      one. Their income comes from bonds where they invested
      the proceeds from the

      Unfortunately, the 15,000 p/e is an error, unless I'm wrong in
      believing that one uses annual "earnings" to calculate it.
      Their trailing earnings are 6 cents a year, so the p/e
      works out to a "mere" 2500.

      It will be
      interesting to see what happens in the morning. If I heard
      the reporting correctly, about 125,000 shares traded
      after hours, reaching a low of 139.25, but recoveing to
      about 145 by the end of trading. If we had a more
      liquid market, this stock would be in even worse


    • SS

      I noticed your post regarding my
      "prediction" of a market crash. Do you remember? I, for one,
      have never predicted market behavior. I dont know
      where you getting this notion.

      Ben Graham? You
      think he is outdated? Well funny that you mention
      market behavior and him in the same post. Well Graham
      once referred to the MARKET as "Mr. Market" and
      likened him to a manic depressive. Loosely quoting from
      Graham, "Mr. Market is very fickle...he tells what he
      think youre worth do not like
      this?....well Mr. Market doesnt care because everyday it can

      My point? Well this simple analogy speaks
      volume about Graham's post 1929 investing attitude and
      provides a great lesson. Since the market is so sporadic
      then market predictions are pointless. Needless to say
      I do not predict but merely remind others.

      You also said that Graham type of thinking is
      pointless in this overvalued market. Oh I dont think so!
      Read the quote again and you will see, with some
      insight, that it still holds true today.

      everytime you flipped on your trusty CNBC, pure
      entertainment in my opinion, you can thank the "outdated" Mr.
      Graham. For every so-called "industry,sector expert or
      analyst" is the creation of Mr. Graham. Although from
      reading Graham I find it hard to believe he would approve
      of so many and the facts they leave out. You see Mr
      Graham is the original security analyst. He was the
      first and was appropriately dubbed "Dean of Wall
      Street" by his colleagues. SS if you research Graham and
      his many accomplishments (like the fact he was able
      to return 12% annually before, during and after the
      1929 crash) you will find the above as facts. He made
      security analysis as possible as an exact

      Also what Graham leaves us, which is more than the
      Motley Fools will ever leave behind, is a series of how
      to view a company. A rational that compares it to
      buying a local store. This is essientally what the stock
      market is and will always be. I remember discussing this
      with a trader that was puffing a cigar on wall street
      once outside of the NYSE. He looked at me oddly than

      One other point that you made with
      regards to Graham and the 1990s. Well if the truth be
      known the higher amounts, which you are obviously
      referring to, only occurred in the past few years. Gone are
      the years of the 20% (basic average and yes I know
      about the 80+% returns as well). On average over the
      PAST FEW years the market has done about 20%. Look now
      at what is happening. First study year to year
      average returns then factor in this decade. The market
      will return to such averages as 12% or so. Then
      everybody, who havent studied up, will say, "what

      Oh yeah my age? Well yes I am 25 and have
      been invested since the age of 16. My current wealth
      is more than my salary, as a security analyst,
      currently. Yes the conversation outlined in the 6th
      paragraph did take place.

      To conclude, some here,
      not necessarily you, seem to think that a crystal
      ball exist. That there is some mystery behind Wall
      Street. Last time I was there, about 4 months ago, it
      wasnt a mystery to me. In fact it still just a paved
      street that sits near the Staten Island ferry and is
      located in lower Manhattan. I hope you dont think this
      babbling of silliness of Graham and the market isnt an
      attempt to be pompous.

      Best of luck in your


    • Does anyone know the range and close of AMZN in aftermarket trading, or, I should say extended NASDAQ hours.. Thanks

    • AMZN's trading desk opens for business on
      Thursday, and a lot of sellers line up, and no buyers show

      It WILL happen. Get out tomorrow, or
      you'll feel stupider than Ebay longs will feel tomorrow


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