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  • flyingrb flyingrb Dec 9, 1999 3:04 PM Flag

    Glad to see some sanity

    on this board again. Thank's N.E. (Never thought
    I'd be saying THAT!!) No slander Nem, you're O.K. in
    my book.

    Glad to see House and Wanger getting
    along so well. Why don't you guys get together an write
    a book entitled "Assault Rifle Golf". May be a big

    BTW. Catching a falling knife by its handle never
    cuts. Be well, people. I'll post another good joke when
    I hear one.

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    • Another great post by Nemesis, laughing at sonny for being short when AMZN was $113/sh.

      click on below link.


    • Another great post from Nemesis editor on the day that Amazon hit $113/sh.

      Clip on the below "reply to"

    • Nov. est: ( 80% x 70M peak wk. avg.) + 3 non-peak
      wks. = $146M for mo.

      $146M / 1.8M Nov.
      customers = <---ADDED THIS LINE

      $81.11 per
      Office&Home Customers x 45% (b) of customer base = $36.50 per
      home-based customer

      (b) more orders come from the
      office than the home

    • Here's why.

      Let's assume post-Thanks
      Giving Nov. sales are 80% less than peak season
      And assume that home-based buyers represent 45% of
      over-all buyers (office + home).
      Blodget's est.:
      Unique buyers: 1.8M according to PC Data

      So let's look at each week and month to see what
      kind of totals we need to meet in order to show sales
      in line with estimates.

      Q3 Net sales:
      $355,777,000 divided by 13 to get wk'ly avg. expected sales of

      $27,367,461.54 per wk. av. sales in Q3 x 9.5% normal growth =

      $29,967,370.38 per on 80% of peak sales type wk. x 9 (a) off
      peak wks. = $270M

      $550 est Q4 revs - 270M total
      for all non-peak wks = 280M for 4 pks wks leading up
      to Xmas.

      $280M / 4 wks. =

      $70M = my
      est for peak weeks on avg. (Nov. less than mid. Dec.
      for example)

      Nov. est: ( 80% x 70M peak wk.
      avg.) + 3 non-peak wks. = $146M for mo.

      $81.11 x
      45% (b) of customer base = $36.50 per home-based

      (a) Oct., most of Nov. until Black Friday, end of
      Dec. after Xmas
      (b) more orders come from the
      office than the home

      So 1.8M home-based users in
      Nov. spending $36.50 could indeed support sales-pace
      to meet Blodget's forecast. If they spent actually
      more per average purchase than this, or if sales pick
      up even more or traffic increases (which it probably
      will, and already has in Dec. according to Dec. 5
      MediaMetrix report) next week, the upside would exceed his
      target of course.

    • When Amazon announces more products like office supplies, automobiles and much more... Shorts will lose their entire savings.

    • on AMZN was positive in my view.Been long since i covered in the 60's.

      Poor shorts....remember shorts never quit,just cost avg up-hahahaha!!!!!!

    • Home-BASED-buyers.


    • It says number is for "home buyers" that made

      1) Doesn't say how many purchased from the office.
      This number is higher I read and will post some stats
      if I can dig them up.

      2) It does not mention
      repeat purchases. It merely counts unique purchasers. So
      for every new address you send a gift to that's a new
      purchase not captured by this data.

    • Try the third paragraph, reproduced

      NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of people surfing the
      Internet surged again last week, jumping 38 percent year
      over year, with diversified Web retailer
      Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMZN - news) breaking away from the
      pack with more than 6 million visitors during the
      week, a survey showed on Thursday.

      With the
      holiday shopping season in full swing, traffic to
      electronic commerce sites last week jumped 44 percent
      compared with the same week in 1998, according to the
      study by market research firm Media Metrix Inc.
      (NasdaqNM:MMXI - news).

      In addition, a second survey by
      market research firm PC Data showed about 1.8 million
      home-based buyers who actually purchased items from in November. and eToys more than doubled
      the number of buyers over October, with 876,000 and
      403,000, respectively, the firm

      As usual, I expect an apology.

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