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# Amazon.com, Inc. Message Board

• flyingrb flyingrb Dec 9, 1999 3:04 PM Flag

## Glad to see some sanity

on this board again. Thank's N.E. (Never thought
I'd be saying THAT!!) No slander Nem, you're O.K. in
my book.

Glad to see House and Wanger getting
along so well. Why don't you guys get together an write
a book entitled "Assault Rifle Golf". May be a big
hit.

BTW. Catching a falling knife by its handle never
cuts. Be well, people. I'll post another good joke when
I hear one.

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• Another great post by Nemesis, laughing at sonny for being short when AMZN was \$113/sh.

191602

• Another great post from Nemesis editor on the day that Amazon hit \$113/sh.

Clip on the below "reply to"

• Nov. est: ( 80% x 70M peak wk. avg.) + 3 non-peak
wks. = \$146M for mo.

\$146M / 1.8M Nov.

\$81.11 per
Office&Home Customers x 45% (b) of customer base = \$36.50 per
home-based customer

(b) more orders come from the
office than the home

• Here's why.

Let's assume post-Thanks
Giving Nov. sales are 80% less than peak season
sales.
And assume that home-based buyers represent 45% of
Blodget's est.:
\$550M
Unique buyers: 1.8M according to PC Data
survey

So let's look at each week and month to see what
kind of totals we need to meet in order to show sales
in line with estimates.

Q3 Net sales:
\$355,777,000 divided by 13 to get wk'ly avg. expected sales of
\$27,367,461.54

\$27,367,461.54 per wk. av. sales in Q3 x 9.5% normal growth =
29,967,370.38

\$29,967,370.38 per on 80% of peak sales type wk. x 9 (a) off
peak wks. = \$270M

\$550 est Q4 revs - 270M total
for all non-peak wks = 280M for 4 pks wks leading up
to Xmas.

\$280M / 4 wks. =

\$70M = my
est for peak weeks on avg. (Nov. less than mid. Dec.
for example)

Nov. est: ( 80% x 70M peak wk.
avg.) + 3 non-peak wks. = \$146M for mo.

\$81.11 x
45% (b) of customer base = \$36.50 per home-based
customer

(a) Oct., most of Nov. until Black Friday, end of
Dec. after Xmas
(b) more orders come from the
office than the home

So 1.8M home-based users in
Nov. spending \$36.50 could indeed support sales-pace
to meet Blodget's forecast. If they spent actually
more per average purchase than this, or if sales pick
up even more or traffic increases (which it probably
will, and already has in Dec. according to Dec. 5
MediaMetrix report) next week, the upside would exceed his
target of course.

• When Amazon announces more products like office supplies, automobiles and much more... Shorts will lose their entire savings.

• on AMZN was positive in my view.Been long since i covered in the 60's.

Poor shorts....remember shorts never quit,just cost avg up-hahahaha!!!!!!

• BEZOS COOMING UP ON CNBC...6.00

purchases.

1) Doesn't say how many purchased from the office.
This number is higher I read and will post some stats
if I can dig them up.

2) It does not mention
repeat purchases. It merely counts unique purchasers. So
for every new address you send a gift to that's a new
purchase not captured by this data.

• Try the third paragraph, reproduced
below.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of people surfing the
Internet surged again last week, jumping 38 percent year
over year, with diversified Web retailer Amazon.com
Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMZN - news) breaking away from the
pack with more than 6 million visitors during the
week, a survey showed on Thursday.

With the
holiday shopping season in full swing, traffic to
electronic commerce sites last week jumped 44 percent
compared with the same week in 1998, according to the
study by market research firm Media Metrix Inc.
(NasdaqNM:MMXI - news).

In addition, a second survey by
market research firm PC Data showed about 1.8 million
home-based buyers who actually purchased items from
Amazon.com in November. Buy.com and eToys more than doubled
the number of buyers over October, with 876,000 and
403,000, respectively, the firm
said.

*********
As usual, I expect an apology.

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