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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • steviejobz steviejobz Mar 12, 2008 12:32 PM Flag

    massive underperformance by LINE - bizarre

    MLP sector hasnt caught a bid while the broader market is up almost 5% past 2 days

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    • So what??? all MLP's will continue to grind the market. Dividend/Distrubution powerhouses always do. LINE issued lots of shares..incurred lots of debt..AND IN 2 YEARS EVERYONE ON THIS BOARD WILL BE FAWNING OVER THE GENIUS THAT DEVISED SUCH A BRILLIANT MONEY MAKING MACHINE! You sell..I buy. Thanks.

    • Not bashing LINE just mentioning my naivette in not understanding what drives this stock forward. Own this at $22.86 and would love to see some ATN like levitation. Of course it has yet to occur but I would like to believe that it will stay around the 20-24 level while collecting the dividend. Sympathize with those that bought at much higher levels, been there with other stocks, but hope we get some upside sometime in the future. Good luck to all longs.

    • By the way ross, that 52 week low occurred on feb/15/08. I am surprised I did not get some smart aleck comment. I was referring too. once again, time value (which is what a distribution or divy,,,(semantics) is all about for the "unit/share" holder? Has anyone noticed the trend from 40 in a total of the past year? Not bashing just the facts.

    • 16.05+2.52=18.57... 18.57/2.52=13.5%.... 20.50-18.50=2.00. 2.00/18.57=.107% total return in one year (not 13.5%). Trade out of it now and you would make a lot more than either of the above. Your math his right. Most think it is only about the distribution.

    • Lets retry your math- $18.57 - $2.52 distribution equals $16.05

    • mcs, how dare you say anything bad about LINN. Some on this board will say you cannot see the forest for the trees. A polite way of calling you a dunmbass. Fact is even if you had bought at the 52 week low and collected a full year distribution during that time. You are now underwater. 52 wk low 18.57 plus (adi) dis of 2.52 = 21.09. LINE stock below that now. Not bashing just the way it is.

    • MLPs are an unusual asset class with somewhat limited appeal at the moment and with a number of issues that have not gone away, like lots of units recently coming on the market, as well as a very uncertain economy. Underperformance should be expected, certainly for the time being. It is not as if the Fed has really fixed anything permanently.

      Anyway, for those who see these units as long-term holds and don't plan to do much more than add units, I would venture to say that the only immediate benefit of $30 versus $20 prices is psychological. On the other hand, it is a nice continuation of a buying opportunity.

      The more I study LINE (and a couple of other MLPs) the better they look long-term in spite of current events. But I am also glad I didn't buy at $40 -- the economics were certainly not as compelling then. I am also impressed by how convoluted some aspects of MLPs are for most investors to understand clearly.

      Jumping in and out of investments based on $3 to $5 swings is a good way to make your broker love you and miss significant moves in the right direction -- at least that is my observation. "You" and "your" in the previous sentence don't mean you individually, it is just rhetorical usage. It could mean me.

      As far as "massive" underperformance, I still wouldn't want to own C, ABK, MBI or TMA (even though it jumped 80% today -- to get to less than $3). They have been and are likely to remain underperformers on all fronts for awhile.

      • 1 Reply to badbernanke
      • Assuming everything in your post is correct, I think most of us would agree with your conclusions. The problem comes with the experience that is gained after years of investing where stocks that have gotten hammered turned out to deserve the major price cutting and the market was telling us that there were problems with the company. When stocks get 50% haircuts, it is hard not to worry that the fall is not over and that the cost cutting may be deserved. Unless you are in upper management at the company, how do you really know what is going on when a stock price takes the kind of hit that LINE has?

    • Wall Street welcomes reports that the central bank is pumping an additional $200 billion into the banking system.

      The actual impact on the banking system will be minimal, said Robert Loest, portfolio manager at Integrity Funds, saying the government's need to borrow money will absorb half of the $200 billion in 30 days. But the announcement has a psychological impact, and that's why stocks are responding today, he said.

      "It's not that there isn't enough money out there, it's not a liquidity issue," Loest said. "It's a confidence issue."

      "I think the market is in a process of a psychological bottoming," he said<<<<<<<<<<<

      "It's a confidence issue."

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