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  • rlp2451 rlp2451 Oct 27, 2012 1:40 PM Flag

    OT: Barron's Says US in For Tough Time No Matter Who Is Elected

    How it may turn out depends heavily on what happens a week from Tuesday, according to LSR. Most likely is an Obama win, with Republicans holding the House and Democrats holding the Senate, the London-based research firm says, in which case it sees extension of the Bush tax cuts, even for the rich, but with other tax hikes hitting. Spending cuts would be about half those that would come under sequestration. Bottom line: 2.25% or so sliced from GDP.

    In the event of a GOP sweep of the White House and both houses of Congress, LSR expects only the payroll-tax cut to end, while spending cuts would be deeper, also totaling some 2.25% of GDP. A sweep by the Democrats would mean the end to Bush tax cuts and the most negative scenario for growth, off some 2.75%. Finally, Lombard Street Research thinks, a Romney win with the GOP holding the House and the Democrats keeping control of the Senate or the scenario of Obama's re-election and Republicans controlling the House or the Senate both would result in a 2.3% cut in GDP. The former would lean more to spending cuts, while the latter would result from a bipartisan agreement on taxes and spending.

    "You don't need a degree from MIT to see what that would mean to an economy growing at 2% -- a severe recession," says Greg.

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    • Who will win Obama 74% Romney 26%

      Which is best for the economy?

      Romney 83% Obama 17%

      Which is best for the stock market?

      Romney 79% Obama 21%

      A Romney win will therefore be a big upside surprise not built into equity values.

      He needs to do a show on the California economy and Progressive control for the last 20+ years and what the result has been.

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