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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • rlp2451 rlp2451 Nov 10, 2012 12:24 PM Flag

    MarketEdge Downgrades Linn to Avoid

    Stock is a Short Sale Candidate.
    If you are long, close position or monitor stock closely.

    Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bearish Trend.
    Chart pattern indicates a Weak Downward Trend.
    Relative Strength is Neutral.
    Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution.
    The 50 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.
    The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
    Price is under Support of 39.43 which is Bearish.

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    • Market Edge's downgrade shows that you don't have to be intelligent to be an anaylist.

    • In ancient Rome a fellow could go into business as a haruspex. He'd read chicken guts and those of other more expensive animals to prognosticate the future. People have forever sought signs of pending events in putative patterns of practically anything. Empirical evidence typically goes out the window. Same can be said of today's technical analysis (with some short-term exceptions that a speculator usually doesn't need a chart to divine). Basically it's tea leaves, the more so with a high-dividend entity like Linn. I made money Friday because it was fairly obvious that the selling was overdone. Maybe even panicky. MarketEdge's computer reflexes would've kept me out. And I expect to keep the covered call money and the LINE units from selling the April 44s at .85. A chart isn't needed to tell me that 44 in 5 months is fundamentally asking too much. But if things go awry, I'll gleefully take 44 and buy back in cheaper. All based on fundamentals. (And, Roger, thanks for the post. It's fun to see what folks come up with.)

      • 2 Replies to ronharv
      • iuse the technical dart board method. Blind fold my eyes and throw the dart. Works 98% of the time.The 2 % is where i missed the board.

      • " I made money Friday because it was fairly obvious that the selling was overdone. "

        "go into business as a haruspex" So Ron has.

        He feels it! Doesn't even need chicken guts. Guess that is progress.

        Golden crosses do have predictive power by the academic research. Exponential smoothing has some predictive power. But most important of all is fundamental valuation and being mindful of benchmark measurements like the Schiller OE.
        Technical analysis works best when markets are efficient as in not in a bubble. But this is exactly the time Wall Street salesmen hawk it to convince retail investors they have an edge while gambling.

        There is a great deal more than Ron understands to trading options and most importantly that while refusing to understand he demands to share. - Delusion rather than intent. But hubris would make them effectively the same.


    • I figured Sand woud be all over this, since he is the chart expert.

    • Delusion.

      Academic research proves technical analysis is not a rational basis for buying or selling an investment.

      A very few techniques are positive but not enough for a stand atone decision.

      Technicals can only be useful if the decision itself is based on sound fundamental rationality or G&D valuation.

      A calendar example of a minor sustained anomaly would be to lighten positions on a Friday in the first week of a month. To add to positions on the last Monday of a month.

      Any time the 50 day average crosses the 200 day average it is worthy of note. But again for a fully hedged company like LINE we are most interested in the fundamentals.

      Markets cannot be timed which is very different from using a tool like the Schiller PE to measure the risk of valuation. That will keep a rational investor out of bubbles like the NAZ5000.

      But of course irrational bubble is the natural environment for for wing monkeys so there will be much prattle for some amount of time about their magical powers to make money. Bit it is very clear our resident flock does not have investments which is why they send all day actually bashing all domestic energy companies.

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