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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • norrishappy norrishappy Mar 26, 2013 5:42 PM Flag

    Bought some POT today

    You know I am looking at my JNJ and wondering what the heck.

    SP analysts has the full value at $88. But that is based on 14.5 times expected 2014 earnings.

    I do not think I can sell it unless it gets broken some how. But it is also an example of why I will not be beating the market by such a wide margin going forward.

    It is interesting. LINE is very cheap relative to this market. They have the BRY with the improved DCF coverage and a lowering of the debt ratio. Enough elephant hunting for a while so that the analysts can get a series on the organic cash flow.

    A stock cheaper than it should be used as currency is not so great either. Unless you are a BRY owner.

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    • Potash cut to Sell at Cantor Fitzgerald
      Potash is cut to Sell from Hold with a $31 price target, down from $36, at Cantor Fitzgerald, which says the stock's recent surge is unwarranted as potash prices continue to fall.

      A lack of demand is evident and POT may have to curtail production, which would in turn reduce earnings, the firm says; potash prices in India and Brazil already have plunged 15%-20%.

      Also, the Uralkali-Belaruskali dispute will take time to resolve, and it's possible that any reunion could come at the expense of its competitors at least until it has regained lost market share.

    • Another one of Norris' stock picks. Bought March 26th @ $39.50 (unless he has some magical method to get it at the 52-week low on that day as he always claims). Price today: $37.90 BUT:

      Pre-market indicators are DOWN $10.00 due to:

      The big losers this morning are companies like Potash, which is a big producer of fertilizer.The stock is down 21% in the pre-market.

      So what's going on with Potasha and its ilk?

      Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus passes along the following:

      Yesterday, Potash names surged late in the session as Dan Loeb’s Investor letter signaled a large position in CF.

      This morning, OAO Uralkali, the world’s largest potash producer, broke up a marketing venture that controlled about 43 percent of global exports, signaling prices will weaken as the Russian company grabs market share - Uralkali plans to boost sales to consumers including China, which imports about a fifth of global supplies - Expects prices to fall to $300 a tonne from $400 a tonne.

      Going to buy more?

      • 1 Reply to rlp2451
      • Yes rlp"d I have a loser in the portfolio. But now I think your mocking will fix it for me. Like MSFT below $27 and cxs, ncs and more than 10 others it is to boring to repeat.

        I actually bought some more today. Progressive Russia is having a tantrum.

        Prices are not below the full cost of production. Which is why all the new capacity investment was cancelled.

        Belarus seems to be the low cost variable expense producer. But they are not going to make it up on volume if they collapse the market in the short term. Nor should any one assume Putland Russia will not interfere with their operations as they can. Nor does capturing market share with a finite asset rational.

        This is what diversification is about. I would note to that Crammer did not like Pot.

        This is really yet another commodity going below the full cost of production due to sub par demand resulting from Obamanics.

        Let us see how this unfolds.

    • Too bad you didn't buy RNF instead. You'd be up $2 instead of down .25. Plus getting an 8% yield instead of 3%. Oh, well, que sera sera.

    • How many stocks do you own.
      As well how many are positive and how many are negative. As well what kind of cash have you got in the market there big dog.

      Break it down. Duh duh duh duh........, duh duh duh duh you can't touch this.

    • Just more over diversification on your part. Winners being taken out by losers.
      MWE at least you aren't worried about that tax bill coming.

      MSFT going no where straight line to down.
      LINE no where straight lining for now.
      RIO takes out profits from TWC there is NO TCW stock.

      Am I over diversified is what Cramer should do next on his show. Then have all you guys call in with the stocks you own. That would be a hoot.

      • 1 Reply to opinionsarelike33
      • Poor Opinions a founding member of the Progressive Cult of Occupy Line Board.

        Line is paying out over 8% based on management's distribution guidance.

        MSFT is about where it was. BUt the dividend has been increased 15% and should be again in a few months. It is a company executing poorly rather than a broken company or dead money. It is simply to cheap for that. PC shipping with out MSFT operating system is concerning.

        Now MWE at $61 is very richly valued. EPD and KMR are fully valued but not on the same risk reward line. Not so sure about ETP. Those clowns might get it right yet. ETE valuation sure seems to forecast so.

        I know rational investment thinking doesn't mix with the delusions of casino gambling and free drinks for the losers the OLB tell each other. Tell big whoppers as we all know perception is your reality.

        I actually picked up a few more shares of RIO today. Hard to explain given the economic numbers but it does appear our industrial economy is picking up. Maybe it is housing. In any case I believe RIO will pay the dividend.

        Now there is some other really interesting stuff as well.

        As for POT they should have great gobs of free cash flow coming after finishing their expansion projects. Further ethanol corruption has insured more crops will be planted. I wonder what else American corn farmers can plant because they have really brought a world of tuff competition for themselves. Maybe back to wheat or more affordable beef?

        Hey if the dividends are growing and 2% or 3% yield life is ok. Never set out to beat the market it just works out that way. INTC with their foundry push is interesting. At these prices.