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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

  • fredrickson01 fredrickson01 Aug 8, 2013 12:16 PM Flag

    Why LINE is down and How Much

    LINE (and LNCO) are down about 6% as of 12:10 PM Eastern. Here's why. Linn said on the conference call that they don't anticipate raising the distribution this year (because of the delay in BRY acquisition, of course). Market was expecting the $3.08 annualized rate of distribution soon, but it now looks like $2.90 will be the annualized distribution rate for a while. That's 5.8% less than the anticipated $3.08.

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    • I believe they are down because the real numbers that matter most here are EBITDA and distributable cash flow and they came up a little short on both. Is the drop overdone? I think so, but for a company in their current situation volatility is the norm. GLTA

    • garrh Aug 8, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

      Who cares about that. Put your money in a bank account and see how much you'll make on that. If $2.90 isn't good enough, then you should invest elsewhere. This IS a good company. It will bounce back eventually. I hope all the impatient investors are sorry for selling out today.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to garrh
      • thats one way of looking at it, another is this stock is down 31% YTD and the S&P index fund is up 20% - Oh I'm sorry you've collected 4% in dividends that makes up for the lost opportunity. I'm long but I'm not going to sit here and pretend this isn't #$%$ news. the other reason the stock is down is because they have no answers for the #$%$ performance

      • I'm very long LINE. Just commenting on why the market might be adjusting for the $2.90 distribution rather than the $3.08 that had been announced by Linn earlier this year. This factor, plus going ex-dividend today, pretty much accounts for today's price change. I intend to hold LINE. A good company with smart management, making strategic adjustments which will improve IIQ and IVQ performance and set the stage for a strong 2014. Clearly, Linn is still looking for acquisition and development opportunities. Is committed to BRY deal. Filing revised SEC paperwork today to update for QII results and perhaps other boilerplate needed in the prospectus for the BRY deal.
        I would not be surprised to see a few analysts come out with favorable recommendations based on the Conf Call today. BTW, at a currrent price of $25.45, the $2.90 represents a 11.4% distribution yield. Darned good yield and not a lot of risk in it in my opinion.

    • Makes sense.Glad we have a little more clarity going forward.Didn't expect anything on SEC but filing an extension because of time frame is understandable

      • 1 Reply to fezzywigsattitude
      • Good thread. Smart posters.

        I feel sorry for investors who allow themselves to be frightened out of good holdings; mais c'est la vie. People who don't research what they hold and don't use their logic to understand short scare tactics and misinformation will always be vulnerable.

        For my part, I took advantage of the price today to buy a little more. LINE was much lower when I started accumulating shares (back in 2009, 2010,) and all those dividends have been compounding quarterly, now monthly. The miracle of compound interest.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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